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FXCA20 KWBC 301908
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 30 JANUARY 2026 AT 1800 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
PERSISTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE BAHAMAS, CUBA,
AND TOWARDS COSTA RICA IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY OVER THE BAHAMAS, WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH 35MM. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AID THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND
JAMAICA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL STILL
BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AT UPPER LEVELS,
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE REGION, AND AN ADDITIONAL 20 - 45MM IS
LIKELY.
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AS SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE, PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45MM FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ADDITIONAL 20 - 35MM IS FORECASTED FOR
PUERTO RICO FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND TOTALS WILL LIKELY
REACH 25MM OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO VERACRUZ WILL BRING STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO VERACRUZ AND SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH FORECASTED DAILY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 - 35MM THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD, IT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER
HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 20 - 45MM FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
BAHAMAS, CUBA, AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO COSTA RICA, INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
STRONGER, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS STRONG NORTHERLY INFLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING INTO MEXICO APPROACHES THE REGION.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, DAILY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH 30 - 60MM.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION ACROSS TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE
MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE,
DIURNAL HEATING, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AN AREA OF INTEREST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS COLOMBIA, WHERE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STARTING TODAY, THE
PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL MOSTLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC ONTO THE COAST WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL START EXPERIENCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITIES TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH AT
LOW LEVELS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED LATER ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENHANCE
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE
IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 50 - 100MM, AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 40 - 80MM FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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