211
FXUS02 KWBC 301925
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 02 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 06 2026
***PERSISTENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS SNOW AND WIND TO THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS REMAINING FROM THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC TO MAINE. THE ARCTIC COLD WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL
STAYING POWER IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM, ALTHOUGH SOME GRADUAL
ABATEMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST WITH ROUNDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW, AND INCREASING
RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY AGREEABLE ON THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES TO
WATCH. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE ATLANTIC RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKENDS WINTER STORM, THE
PATTERN WILL RE-AMPLIFY AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS
SOUTHWARD AND REINFORCES MEAN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE AN UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST. GUIDANCE INITIALLY
DEPICTS A PASSING CLIPPER-SYSTEM BEFORE THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO
SPIN UP A SURFACE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGH. HOWEVER, RUN-
TO-RUN CONTINUITY AS WELL AS A REVIEW OF AVAILABLE AI GUIDANCE
(AIGFS/ECMWF AIFS) SHOWS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST
WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS ARE
BETTER CLUSTERED COMPARED TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE CMC, AND GENERALLY
FALL WITHIN THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH SOME AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MOST RECENT FORECASTS, THESE SOLUTIONS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 12-24 HOURS AGO. ALSO, WITHIN THESE UPDATED
RUNS, THE 06Z RUN OF THE ECMWF AIFS WAS NOTABLY WEAKER AND SLOWER
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN, AND THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH WEAKER AS
WELL. THIS OVERALL TREND WOULD SHIFT TOWARDS MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/OHIO VALLEY AND THEN EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST, BUT WITH NOTED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FOOTPRINT AND
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, ALL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY AGREEABLE ON
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING TROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES VICINITY LATE NEXT WEEK. TO THE WEST, ALL GUIDANCE ALSO
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING THE UPPER-RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UNCERTAIN UPSTREAM EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS HIGHER, THOUGH
THESE LOOK TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER FOR THE
REGION, WITH MOISTURE FLOW LOOKING TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE NORTH
INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH SOME CMC INITIALLY BEFORE THE CMC WAS REPLACED WITH
AN INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS GIVEN THE
NOTED OUTLIER NATURE OF THE CMC SOLUTION AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. A 30-40% CONTRIBUTION
FROM THE MEANS FOR THE MID- TO LATE PERIOD LIMITED THE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER LIMITING DAYTIME HIGHS, EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ABATEMENT COMPARED TO THE EXTREME
COLD THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. THE
DURATION OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS COMPARABLE TO DECEMBER OF
1989 FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UNUSUALLY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO EXTEND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE
POWERFUL ATLANTIC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT, WITH THIS BOUNDARY
MAKING IT PAST THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA BY MONDAY MORNING. A
DAMAGING HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK. MANY DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ARCTIC
BLAST.
OUT WEST, THE THEME OF MILD CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
EXIST FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE, A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN. BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE MID-SOUTH,
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS BEEN AN UPWARD
TREND IN POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AREAS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED YET GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE RETURN. SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING RENEWED SNOWS TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
PUTNAM/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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