988
FXUS06 KWBC 302002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 30 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 09 2026
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL, 500-HPA, HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED BY THE GEFS,
ECENS, AND CMCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING NORTH
INTO ALASKA. UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC,
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND MID-ATLANTIC EXCEEDING
80%. SEPARATELY, SOUTH FLORIDA ALSO HAS AN 80% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR
NORMAL TMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE
STRONGEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, EXCEEDING 80%, DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MAIN ISLANDS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY START TO
FEBRUARY DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. BASED ON A
SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECASTS, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST (60 TO 70 PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST BENEATH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE REGION DURING PRIOR
FORECASTS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. THIS LEADS TO A FORECAST THAT LEANS
TOWARDS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE THAN YESTERDAY.
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITHIN THE POLAR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
SLIGHTLY TILTS THE OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO ALASKA BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FORMATION OF A KONA LOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2026
IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT A PATTERN CHANGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEK-2 TIME PERIOD. THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA (INCLUDING THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA)
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THESE FEATURES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TROUGHING TO DEVELOP
NEAR AND ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF WEEK-2. THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING WEEK-2 FORECAST AND LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH A VAST NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THROUGHOUT WEEK-2, THE
DEFINING FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS THE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING.
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL ARE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70% BROADLY AND 80%
NEAR THE COAST. TOOLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORED EARLY IN
WEEK-2. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLVES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED EXCEPT FOR KAUAI WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MOST LIKELY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT AMONGST A
VARIETY OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN THE WEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION REGIME. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ALL FAVOR NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR WEST, RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS
QUITE THE PATTERN CHANGE FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
EVOLUTION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST CORRESPONDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED OVER MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, PARTICULARLY
EARLY IN WEEK-2. IN HAWAII, TOOLS APPEAR TO BE SUGGESTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
KONA LOW FORMATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% OVER
MUCH OF HAWAII EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND WHERE 40-50% CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
ARE FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS EARLY BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160117 - 20030124 - 20100129 - 20030112 - 20160212
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240117 - 20070206 - 20140128 - 20030113 - 20210210
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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