151
FXUS01 KWBC 310817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 31 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 02 2026
...AN EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING COASTAL CYCLONE WILL BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS, AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...AN INTENSE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM WILL
SEND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY MORNING...
...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR, WHICH CONTAINS EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT, IS
FORECAST TO DIVE UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT APPROACHES THE MUCH WARMER WATERS OF
THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., A COASTAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN EXPLOSIVELY TONIGHT. AN AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GEORGIA TODAY. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD SEE THE CYCLONE INTENSIFYING MOST RAPIDLY WHILE
EXPANDING IN SIZE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHEN THE MOST INTENSE
WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SNOW, WHICH COULD LEAD TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES EVEN OUT TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE RAPID EXPANSION OF ITS SIZE WILL BRING HIGH WINDS
AND COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIALS RAPIDLY UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING AND DAMAGING WAVES. WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO PORTIONS OF GEORGIA,
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AT A
FAIR DISTANCE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY, THE HUGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MANAGE TO THROW SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THE CAPE
COD AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE INTENSE CYCLONE, STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER AN INTENSE SURGE OF ARCTIC BLAST INTO THE SOUTH
AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST TODAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA SINCE THE RECORD COLD MONTH OF DECEMBER 1989. NUMEROUS
DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHALLENGED OR
BROKEN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH
THE FORMATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WINTER STORM, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BRING EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS, INCLUDING SUB-ZERO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH, AND IN THE -20S IN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. BUNDLE UP AND COVER YOUR
MOUTH IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE, ENSURE PETS AND ANIMALS HAVE PROTECTION
FROM THE COLD, AND CONTINUE TO TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT FROZEN PIPES.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN IN THE COASTAL REGIONS, AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
UPSLOPE REGIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTS FROM
THE PACIFIC WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT, AND COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF OREGON
ON SUNDAY. FARTHER DOWNWIND, IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION,
THE HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW, BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
PARTS OF IDAHO, MONTANA, AND WYOMING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TODAY
BEFORE ENDING AS A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN LATER TODAY. THE SNOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN MILDER
THAN NORMAL, A STARK CONTRAST TO THE FRIGID CONDITIONS FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD.
KONG/BLANCO-ALCALA
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