074
FXUS02 KWBC 311855
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 03 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 07 2026
***PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A +PNA PATTERN. THE
RESULT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH. A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RENEWED
CHANCES OF SNOWFALL FROM MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. THE UPPER-FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MEAN UPPER-TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE WEST. A CLIPPER- LIKE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTH HELPING TO DIG THE UPPER-TROUGH SOUTH AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MOST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF THE PROSPECTS OF STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING
PARTICULARLY AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EAST COAST, WITH ONLY THE
CMC NOW CURRENTLY SHOWING A STRONGER UPPER-WAVE AND THUS STRONGER
LOW IN TANDEM. GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS FAIRLY AGREEABLE ON THE
PROSPECTS OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN THE NORTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, AS THE UPPER-RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S., THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM
EVOLUTION OVER THE PACIFIC AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY TO CUT-OFF AS A CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, AT LEAST FOR
NOW, NEITHER LOOKS TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WEATHER FOR THE
REGION AS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS MOST MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN OFF THE COAST WEST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE AND FLOW NORTHWARD
INTO WESTERN CANADA. BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF/CMC AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUPPORT THAT AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL FINALLY HELP TO
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER-RIDGE AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER
IN SHOWING THE UPPER-RIDGE ACTUALLY SHIFTING A BIT WEST AND
REMAINING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED.
THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE CMC IS REDUCED AND A
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE ECENS MEAN IS ADDED MID-PERIOD AS THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE ON THE SPECIFICS AND THE CMC
MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER-WAVE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR THE
LATE PERIOD, THE GFS IS REMOVED AND A CONTRIBUTION FROM THE ECENS
MEAN AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN IS INCLUDED AS THE GFS IS NOTABLY
DIFFERENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-FLOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S., MAINLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THE NORTHEAST WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER LIMITS DAYTIME HIGHS. WHILE THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME ABATEMENT COMPARED TO THE EXTREME COLD THAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-WEEK,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE HAZARDOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OUT WEST, THE THEME OF MILD CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
EXIST FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES EARLY IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
HEAVIEST QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA WHERE THE
MAIN MOISTURE FLUME WILL BE. A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN TO
WETTER WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE
MID-SOUTH, WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH
THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE RETURN. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-
ATLANTIC, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK.
PUTNAM/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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