777
FOUS11 KWBC 311936
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 01 2026 - 00Z WED FEB 04 2026
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, & SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1...
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIUC AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNFOLDING WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, FALLING
HEAVILY AT TIMES, FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN GA ON
EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA. THIS MORNING,
THE 850MB LOW HAS FORMED AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS SOUTHERN SC WITH A
TONGUE OF RICH 850MB THETA-E AIR ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN FLANKS OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS, SO DOES THE
EASTERLY FETCH SUPPLYING ATLANTIC MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A
BROADENING SHIELD OF SNOW FROM AS FAR WEST AS THE ATLANTA METRO TO
EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS SAVANNAH, GA TODAY. AS STRONG 500MB PVA MOVES
IN ALOFT, A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD OVER EASTERN GA
THAT COULD THEN PIVOT OVER SOUTHERN SC, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
METRO AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF
THE 850MB LOW TRACK WHERE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ENHANCED VIA
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HILLS NEAR CHARLOTTE ON WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY
THERE, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TO EVEN IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS >4" FROM CHARLOTTE ON SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SC AND
EASTWARD TO NORTHEAST SC AND THE CAPE FEAR TIDEWATER REGION.
CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHERN VA ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS CLOSER TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST, AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN
EAST OT THE OUTER BANKS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A DEPRESSION IN THE EXPECTED QPF FOOTPRINT
AROUND THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA ON NORTH AND EAST ALONG I-85 INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. WHILE TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN, IT IS
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WITH HIGHS UNLIKELY TO GET ABOVE THE MID 20S
TODAY. PLUS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING SNOW ON ROADS. WPC
PROBABILITIES STILL SHOW MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR
SNOWFALL TOTALS >2" IN THESE AREAS, WITH BETTER ODDS FOR >4" ON
SOUTHWARD ALONG I- 95 AND I-40. SNOW WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE STICKING
AND TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
EXPECT SLICK ROADS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING, AND ANY MELTING THAT DOES OCCUR ON
SUNDAY ON ROADWAYS HAS A HIGH CHANCE TO REFREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.
FARTHER EAST INTO EASTERN NC AND SOUTHEAST VA, THE STORM SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN BY AS MUCH AS 40MB IN 24
HOURS. NOT ONLY WILL A BAND OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ENSUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT WIND WILL RAMP UP IN INTENSITY
SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND ON NORTH/EAST
FACINGS SHORES OF THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE WARMER SHELF
WATERS WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE 850-500MB LAYER,
ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSNOW TO BE A POTENTIAL PHENOMENON FOR THOSE IN
EASTERN NC. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TIDAL AREAS OF NC
AND SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE POWERFUL WINTER STORM RACES EAST
INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE- TO-HIGH
CHANCES (50-80%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >6" FROM THE MYRTLE BEACH AREA
AND THE CAPE FEAR REGION ON NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NC.
GIVEN THE ROBUST 1-2"/HR RATES IN EASTERN NC, THERE IS A LOW-TO-
MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR LOCALIZED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO SURPASS
12" BY THE TIME THIS EVENT CONCLUDES LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THE BITTER COLD IN WAKE OF THE STORM WILL KEEP
TRAVEL ON ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NC TREACHEROUS
INTO THE START OF THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK.
LASTLY, TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN
SOUTHEAST MA, ALTHOUGH SOME MEASURABLE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS
LIKELY OVER MARTHA'S VINEYARD, NANTUCKET, AND THE MA CAPES. WPC
PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS >4" HERE, WITH NANTUCKET SPORTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
>6" GIVEN THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WINTER STORM ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS STORM, AND ARE LINKED BELOW
(KEY MESSAGE #2).
..NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-3...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA IS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD, PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS MILDER PACIFIC AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD
SURFACE. THE WARM FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, THEN INTO MICHIGAN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 1-3", AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND ENDING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT TOTALS
ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW 3 INCHES.
..OHIO VALLEY & CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
DAY 3...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND RACES INTO THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK 850-700MB WAA AND A TONGUE OF 700-300MB MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE
AVAILABLE ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL. MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE GENERALLY A COATING-2", ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN
EASTERN WV HAVE LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS >2". THIS WEAK FEATURE HAS A CHANCE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
MULLINAX
...WINTER STORM KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT
KEY MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_2.PNG
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