889
FXUS06 KWBC 312002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT JANUARY 31 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 10 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED
MANUAL BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES BROAD RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM
EXTENSION OVER ALASKA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA. STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
ALSO NOTED OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. DEEP TROUGHING IS DEPICTED OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CANADIAN MARITIMES, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
STRETCHING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO WESTERN EUROPE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS.
PROBABILITIES ABOVE 70% ARE ALMOST UNIVERSAL WEST OF THE ROCKIES, AND EXCEED
80% FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED
FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH ODDS
INCREASING TOWARDS THE EAST.CHANCES EXCEED 80% FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALSO HAS ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
EXCEEDING 70% SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS GREATEST
OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WHERE ODDS EXCEED 50%. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ENHANCES ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THIS REGION AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES EXCEEDING 50%. A SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S.-MEXICO
BORDER, WHILE TO THE NORTH A POTENTIAL ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM, ALSO LATE IN THE
PERIOD, SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. BROAD AND SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A POTENTIAL KONA LOW IS FAVORED TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIPITATION OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 70% FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST ISLANDS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 14 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE DEPICT
A TRANSITION IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH A WEAK TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS
STRAIT, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FAVORED TO PERSIST AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE REDUCED RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2 MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
SURFACE LOW FORMING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS THIS LOW WILL COALESCE IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE, WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING FROM WEST TEXAS TO SESKACHEWAN.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN THE EARLIER PERIOD. THIS IS
LIKELY AT LEAST PARTLY FROM INCREASED MODEL SPREAD, BUT ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (>70%) REMAINING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE ODDS TILTED
TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WHILE THE NORTH SLOPE IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST IS FAVORED TO BRING A LARGE
SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS OVER THE CONUS, POTENTIALLY BREAKING THE
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD EXPERIENCED EAST OF THE ROCKIES RECENTLY. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS NOW WEAKLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS AS
A POTENTIAL SURFACE CYCLONE SPINS UP SOMEWHERE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND UP THE
EAST COAST AS WELL AS MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST
TOOLS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WEAKLY FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH
SLOPE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, BOTH OF WHICH ARE INDICATED FOR NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
CONTINUED TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL KONA LOW ACTIVITY IN THE HAWAII REGION KEEPS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS (>50%), WHILE
MODELS INDICATE A SMALLER INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES, LEAVING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160119 - 20100214 - 20160212 - 20030124 - 20170128
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070213 - 20160117 - 20030124 - 20030112 - 20070206
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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