838
FXUS02 KWBC 010756
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 4 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 8 2026
***PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A +PNA PATTERN. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
BREAKDOWN SOME BY THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RENEWED CHANCES OF
SNOWFALL FROM MINNESOTA TO THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND MILD CONDITIONS OUT WEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THE WEEK, WITH A NEARLY MULTI-DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND
WORKING WELL AS A STARTING POINT. GREATER DIFFERENCES EXIST BY NEXT
WEEKEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT TROUGH. THE NBM APPEARED TOO LIGHT WITH QPF ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD, SO THESE VALUES WERE RAISED A LITTLE TO BE
CLOSER TO THE PREFERRED CMC/ECMWF/ECENS SOLUTION. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY NEXT SUNDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE EXTENDED DURATION OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S., WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
HIGHS. OUT WEST, THE THEME OF MILD CONDITIONS AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN MANY AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON WHERE
ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EXIST FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC IS ADVECTED INLAND.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH
THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF
THE WARM SECTOR AND MOISTURE RETURN. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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