838
FXUS01 KWBC 010818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN FEB 01 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 01 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 03 2026
...HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST TODAY AS THE
INTENSE CYCLONE SLIDES OUT TO SEA...
...AN INTENSE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM IS
BRINGING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING...
...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT
WITH A STEADY WARM-UP AFTERWARDS...
THE CORE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS DIVED UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A
COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO FORM AN INTENSE CYCLONE JUST OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING RATE OF THIS
CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY GUSTY WINDS IN THE MIDST OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS INTENSE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE FURTHER OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND EXPANSION OF
THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD HIGH WINDS UP THE EAST COAST EARLY TODAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING FURTHER AWAY INTO THE ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSE CYCLONE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL SURGE
DOWN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
PENETRATING ALL THE WAY DOWN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA SINCE THE RECORD COLD MONTH OF DECEMBER 1989. EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ALL THE
WAY DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION, BLUSTERY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS INTO
THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ENGULF
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY. BUNDLE UP AND COVER YOUR MOUTH IF
YOU ARE OUTSIDE, ENSURE PETS AND ANIMALS HAVE PROTECTION FROM THE
COLD, AND CONTINUE TO TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT FROZEN PIPES. A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
MEANWHILE, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND HEADING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH OVER-RUNNING LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY MIX
CONDITIONS, AT THE SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TODAY AND WISCONSIN AND UPPER
AND LOWER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. SPOTS OF 1-3" OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
AND PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS ARE UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
AFTER CLEARING, THE AIR WILL WARM DUE TO CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH
DAILY HIGHS CLOSE TO OR EVEN WARMER THAN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA,
REACHING THE 50S AND LOW 60S POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY OR ABOUT
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
A NEW LOW PRESSURE WAVE SHOULD BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN IN THE COASTAL REGIONS, AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
UPSLOPE REGIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTS FROM
THE PACIFIC WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT, AND COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW, A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF OREGON
TODAY. MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN NORMAL, A
STARK CONTRAST TO THE FRIGID CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN U.S.
KONG/GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page