829
FOUS11 KWBC 020713
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 02 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 05 2026
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DAY 1...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY ABOVE
4000FT, WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING SHARPLY LATER TODAY. WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE >50% ABOVE 4000FT
OR SO.
..GREAT LAKES
DAY 1-1.5...
WEAK SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SLIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (1-2")
TODAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND IT, MOSTLY
OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THERE, WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4
INCHES OF SNOW ARE 20-40%.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
DAY 1...
A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODEST
SNOW ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT. SOME BANDED SNOW COULD DEVELOP AND
SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, AND WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4
INCHES ARE 30-70% OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
..OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC
DAYS 2-3...
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY 1 (ABOVE) WILL DIVE
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TOMORROW EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, GULF MOISTURE WILL LIT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO YIELD SOME LIGHT SNOW
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. WAA-DRIVEN SNOW IS
LIKELY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY MORNING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TOMORROW EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALSO
SPREADING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, BUT
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN EASTERN WV COULD YIELD A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE AROUND
30-40% ABOVE 3000FT. 1-3" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (>50% CHANCE) FROM
AROUND CINCINNATI EASTWARD. LOWER CHANCES OF JUST 1" ARE SEEN ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO PHL, BUT THIS COULD COINCIDE WITH THE
TUESDAY EVENING RUSH HOUR OR POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
WAVE OVER KY/TN INTO VA/NC. ANY ICE IS HAZARDOUS, BUT THIS COULD BE
MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL DUE TO THE RECENT WINTER STORM(S).
FRACASSO
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