377
FXUS02 KWBC 020752
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 05 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 09 2026
***RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED FOR THE EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND WITH IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER CONTINUING***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THEN THE NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, AND THUS
REINFORCING THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUT WEST, A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC REACHES WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINING NEAR THE EAST COAST AND A BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HERE AND REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EAST COAST STATES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE USED
FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THE GFS BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS IF THAT SOLUTION
VERIFIES. FOR THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., THE GFS STILL HOLDS ONTO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING LONGER THAN THE NON-NCEP CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS THE
RIDGE AXIS EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE AI
GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A QUICKER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE COMPARED TO
THE GFS, SO THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WAS HEDGED
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/ECENS/CMC.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, ITS QPF APPEARS A LITTLE TOO LIGHT GIVEN THE
PREFERRED MODEL PREFERENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
ONSHORE FLOW. AN EQUAL BLEND OF THE CMC/ECMWF/NBM WAS APPLIED HERE
FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO 12Z MONDAY, SHOWING MORE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
TO THE QPF. THE NBM APPEARED REASONABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
MOST OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE VOID OF NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EXITS THE
COAST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW SQUALLS THAT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. NO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THE DAY 4/THURSDAY
AND DAY 5/FRIDAY OUTLOOKS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
MAKES A RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND,
BRINGING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE CASCADES,
AND LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS
RAIN/SNOW COULD REACH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCOMFORTABLY COLD FOR MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT WARM-UP CLOSER TO EARLY FEBRUARY AVERAGES ON FRIDAY, BUT A
HARSH RETURN TO REALITY IS COMING BY SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES BY.
DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE
FRIGID CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE GOING INTO NEXT MONDAY.
A DICHOTOMY WILL EXIST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND THEN EXTENDING EASTWARD TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES SHOULD BE
ACROSS MONTANA, WYOMING, AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE HIGHS COULD
BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ON THURSDAY.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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