401
FXCA20 KWBC 021718
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1218 PM EST MON FEB 02 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 02 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1720 UTC:
A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THIS FRONT AND IT WILL BE PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ON MONDAY. THE REACTIVATION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL
JET ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE ITS PROPAGATION SPEED.
BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT AND WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, BY EARLY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DISCONNECT FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH
WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS PANAMA ON TUESDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS DEFINITION AS IT MOVES INTO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL PATTERN. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE GAINING DEFINITION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MID-TO-UPPER PATTERN WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL PROMOTE INCREASING VERTICAL
ASCENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS INTO NORTH AND NORTH-WESTERN COLOMBIA FOR MONDAY AND
TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST THEREAFTER. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE EXCEEDING 57MM. BY TUESDAY,
A SIMILAR LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS PANAMA BUT
THERE WILL ALSO BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS REGION.
THUS, ON MONDAY, THE AREA WITH THE MOST INTENSE TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL BE ACROSS THE CHOCO REGION OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM. DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD, THERE WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA THAT WILL ENHANCE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
YIELD A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM. BY TUESDAY, TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL REACH 25MM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTS
OF PANAMA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO NOTE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOSING ITS DEFINITION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, DECREASING THE SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL ASCENT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ON WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
AT THIS TIME, THERE WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT RIDGING IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL ACT AS AN INHIBITOR FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. THUS, TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL REACH UP TO 25MM
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THIS PERIOD.
ACROSS PUERTO RICO, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
ISLAND ON MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ON
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
INTERACTING WITH THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THIS WILL PROMOTE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO, WHERE THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. A GENERAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 25 -
50MM IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ACROSS
PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST.
HOWEVER, THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE MORE DIRECTLY
AFFECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ON
TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
OF UP TO 40MM FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY, AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME WILL RETURN AS THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT THE PASSAGE OF MOISTURE PLUMES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
PUERTO RICO, AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR. INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AIDING IN THE
MOISTENING ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, LONG FETCH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL ASSIST IN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR AND IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET, WHERE THE REGION WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA REACHING 35MM FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE IN
THE AMAZON, THE REACTIVATION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA IS ASSISTING IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
REGION. NOTE THAT THE MOST INTENSE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS JET, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED IN THIS REGION.
IN MEXICO, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
ONLY REACH 38MM. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS, NUEVO LEON, AND COAHUILA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SEASONAL
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN. DAILY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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