778
FOUS11 KWBC 021935
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 03 2026 - 00Z FRI FEB 06 2026
..GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1-2...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MI AND WESTERN NY, WITH LOCALIZED 20-40%
PROBABILITIES OF >4" IN THE U.P OF MI AND LOCALIZED 40-60%
PROBABILITIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
..OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC
DAYS 1-3...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, HELPING TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING 250MB 100KT+ JET STREAK WILL YIELD A SWATH OF
BANDED SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST IN AND SOUTHERN OH TUESDAY MORNING
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL >2" ARE 30-60% ACROSS A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST IN EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO WV. BANDED SNOWFALL COULD ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH LOW BUT NOT ZERO
PROBABILITIES OF >4" AROUND 5-10%. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO
PUSH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 4" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF 20-40% MAINLY ABOVE 3000FT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD SURVIVE THE TRIP OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT TRENDS FOR EVEN JUST 1" OF SNOW
HAVE BEEN DECREASING WITH PROBABILITIES NOW ONLY 10-20% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VA, NORTHERN MD, DE, AND SOUTHERN NJ. STILL,
ANY SNOW COMBINED WITH THE RECENT COLD AND TIMING OF EARLY MORNING
RUSH HOUR COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS. WHAT
COULD BE MORE INTERESTING AND WORTH MONITORING IS HOW MUCH MORE THE
WAVE DEVELOPS AS IT BEGINS TO EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE
WINTRY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC, AND WHILE POOR
THERMALS ARE LIKELY LIMITING PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AT THE MOMENT, A DEEPER WAVE AND GREATER DYNAMIC COOLING
COULD CHANGE THAT IN THE COMING DAYS.
IN BETWEEN THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN, SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE OVER KY/TN INTO
VA/NC. ANY ICE IS HAZARDOUS, BUT THIS COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC
THAN USUAL DUE TO THE RECENT WINTER STORM(S).
MILLER
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