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FXUS06 KWBC 022002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 02 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 12 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A NEAR EQUAL WEIGHTED
MANUAL BLEND OF THESE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS INDICATES BROAD RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. IN BETWEEN THESE RIDGES, MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING AN EMERGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH THE 6-10 DAY MEAN
POSITIONING THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST. STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE ALSO NOTED OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT. DEEP TROUGHING IS
DEPICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN MARITIMES, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO WESTERN EUROPE.
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE
GREATEST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND SURROUNDING REGIONS, EXCEEDING 70%.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR ROUGHLY
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND. CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 70% FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST URBAN CORRIDOR. THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALSO HAS ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
EXCEEDING 40% SOUTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANAVERAL AND
ABOVE 50% FOR THE MIAMI AREA.
AS TROUGHING INCREASES OVER THE WEST COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST, PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ENHANCES ODDS OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS DRYING EFFECT EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
ALTHOUGH ODDS TAPER OFF NORTH OF THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC. BROAD AND SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A POTENTIAL KONA LOW IS FAVORED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 70% ACROSS THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STRONGLY FAVORED, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 60% FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERNMOST
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS, OFFSET BY AN EXPECTED LARGE SHIFT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 16 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE DEPICT
A CONTINUATION OF A SYNOPTIC TRANSITION OVER NORTH AMERICA, WITH TROUGHING
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST COAST AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER GREENLAND
AND THE DAVIS STRAIT, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FAVORED TO PERSIST
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
BY WEEK-2. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, WITH
SOLUTIONS BEGINNING TO COALESCE AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK-2.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH SIMILAR
PROBABILITIES SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AS
TROUGHING INCREASES OVER THE WEST COAST, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED FOR MOST MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
U.S. AT THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 BUT MODELS INDICATE A RAPID WARMUP ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEEK-2, RESULTING IN NEAR-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AS WELL AS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, FOR THE PERIOD AS
A WHOLE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE ODDS TILTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND, WHILE INCREASING TROUGHING OVER THE BERING STRAIT FAVORS NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST PAIRED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE PLAINS IS FAVORED TO BRING A LARGE SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
OVER THE LOWER 48. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
CONUS AS INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST AND A POTENTIAL
SURFACE CYCLONE SPINS UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKIES. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WEAKLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE PROBABILITIES
OF NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED.
LINGERING TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL KONA LOW ACTIVITY IN THE HAWAII REGION KEEPS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS (>40%), WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS (>70%).
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY DIVERGING
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100216 - 20160120 - 20100211 - 20030125 - 20160211
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100215 - 20160120 - 20160211 - 20030125 - 20070213
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 08 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO B N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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