412
FXUS02 KWBC 030758
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 6 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 10 2026
***RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED FOR THE EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND WITH IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER CONTINUING***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND THEN THE NORTHEAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, AND
THUS REINFORCING THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OUT WEST, A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC REACHES WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINING NEAR THE EAST COAST AND A BROAD RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HERE AND REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EAST COAST STATES WITH SOME MODERATION BY TUESDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THIS ALSO
HOLDS TRUE GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AND THEN DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, AND ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THE CMC HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHEREAS THE 12Z RUN WAS CONSIDERABLY FASTER
AND LACKED ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO
ABOUT 50% BY NEXT TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, IT APPEARED A LITTLE TO BROAD WITH QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, SO MORE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN FOR MORE DETAIL. OUT WEST, QPF WAS RAISED BY ROUGHLY 20%
ACROSS THE WEST COAST REGION AND THE ROCKIES WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND GIVEN HIGHER TOTALS NOTED IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, BUT OVERALL PLACEMENT LOOKED REASONABLE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW
SQUALLS THAT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WITH
SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAKES A
RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS PACIFIC MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND, BRINGING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE CASCADES, AND
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THIS
RAIN/SNOW COULD REACH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAS WILL BE NEEDED FOR BOTH THE DAY
4/FRIDAY AND DAY 5/SATURDAY OUTLOOKS GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD HIGHER QPF TOTALS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCOMFORTABLY COLD FOR MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT WARM-UP CLOSER TO EARLY FEBRUARY AVERAGES ON FRIDAY, BUT A
HARSH RETURN TO REALITY IS COMING BY SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES BY.
DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA TO MAINE. SOME RECORD
LOW MAXIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. THE
FRIGID CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A DICHOTOMY WILL EXIST WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
A LARGE EXPANSE OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND THEN EXTENDING EASTWARD TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES SHOULD BE
ACROSS MONTANA, WYOMING, AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WHERE HIGHS COULD
BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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