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FOUS11 KWBC 030804
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 03 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 06 2026
..GREAT LAKES
DAY 1...
A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" ARE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NEAR WATERTOWN, NY. WPC
PROBABILITIES OF >4" ARE LOW (10-20%).
DAY 3...
A 140KT JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY WILL HELP PUSH A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW FOCUSED ON MICHIGAN WHICH
WILL LIE NEAR/NORTH OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE FRONTS.
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY, GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW BUT INCREASING WINDS OVER
THE REGION WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 12Z FRI ARE LOW (10%) BUT BLOWING
SNOW COULD BE THE BIGGER HAZARD, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.
..OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, CAROLINAS
DAYS 1-2...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CORN BELT THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, HELPING TO DRAW GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 250MB 100KT+ JET STREAK OVER THE MID-
SOUTH WILL YIELD A SWATH OF BANDED SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST IN AND
SOUTHERN OH EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (MINOR IMPACTS PER THE WSSI) AND WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL >2" ARE 30-60% ACROSS A FAIRLY NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN KY (CVG) EASTWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO WV. BANDED SNOWFALL COULD ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH LOW BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITIES OF
>4" AROUND 5-10%. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO PUSH ACCUMULATIONS
ABOVE 4" IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WV, WITH PROBABILITIES OF
20-40% MAINLY ABOVE 3000FT.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CREST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
THIS CAN SOMETIMES DRY UP EAST OF I-81. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF
SNOW ARE GENERALLY <15% ALONG THE I-66/RT 50 CORRIDOR ACROSS
NORTHERN VA, DC, MD, AND INTO DE. STILL, ANY SNOW COMBINED WITH
THE RECENT COLD COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED TRAVEL
CONCERNS.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SLOW THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH GA/SC WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHERN VA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NC WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DYNAMIC
COOLING COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 1-2" OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VA AND NORTHERN NC WHERE WPC PROBABILITIES OF >2" OF
SNOW ARE 30-60%.
AT THE SAME TIME, ENOUGH NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND COULD
DRAIN SOME SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO EASTERN NC AND
SUPPORT LIGHT ICING OF AROUND 0.01" OR SO. ANY ICE IS HAZARDOUS,
BUT THIS COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL DUE TO THE RECENT
WINTER STORM(S).
FRACASSO/MILLER
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