861
FOUS11 KWBC 031900
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
VALID 00Z WED FEB 04 2026 - 00Z SAT FEB 07 2026
..OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, CAROLINAS
DAYS 1-2...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 100KT+ UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL YIELD A SWATH OF SNOW FROM EASTERN KY EASTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT (MINOR IMPACTS PER THE WSSI) AND WPC PROBABILITIES
FOR SNOWFALL >2" ARE 30-60% MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ALSO CREST THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
THIS CAN SOMETIMES DRY UP EAST OF I-81. WPC PROBABILITIES FOR 1"
OF SNOW ARE GENERALLY <15% ALONG THE I-66/RT 50 CORRIDOR ACROSS
NORTHERN VA, DC, MD, AND INTO DE. STILL, ANY SNOW COMBINED WITH THE
RECENT COLD COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY
SLOW THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING
ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH GA/SC
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN VA AND MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NC WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DYNAMIC COOLING COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN
NC, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VA AND
NORTHWEST NC WHERE WPC PROBABILITIES OF >2" OF SNOW ARE 20-40%.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KY, SOUTHWEST
VA, EASTERN TN, AND WESTERN NC LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANYWHERE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MORE PERSISTENT COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. ADDITIONALLY, ENOUGH NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE
WIND COULD DRAIN SOME SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND EASTERN NC, SUPPORTING LIGHT ICING OF AROUND
0.05" OR SO LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE ANY ICE IS HAZARDOUS, THE ICING NOTED ABOVE COULD BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL DUE TO THE RECENT WINTER STORM(S).
..GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC
DAY 3...
A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY WILL
HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET COMBINED WITH A POTENT VORT MAX WILL INCREASINGLY SUPPORT
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS FROM
MI AND WESTERN NY TO OH, PA, AND WV STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO SPILL OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE. WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR >2" OF SNOW ARE 40-70% ACROSS PARTS OF MI,
NORTHEAST OH, NORTHWEST PA, AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
PA AND WV. PROBABILITIES FOR >4" OF SNOW ARE 10-20% FOR PORTIONS OF
THE U.P. OF MI, NORTHEAST OH, AND WV.
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, A BLAST OF BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE
DETAILS, PLEASE REFERENCE THE EXTREME COLD KEY MESSAGES IN THE LINK
PROVIDED BELOW.
MILLER/FRACASSO
...EXTREME COLD KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT KEY
MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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