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FXUS06 KWBC 032023
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
3:00PM EST TUE FEB 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MON FEB 09 2026 - FRI FEB 13 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND VICINITY. AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES, A LONG DURATION BLOCKING RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER GREENLAND, WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 210 METERS OVER HUDSON STRAIT, CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO). MEANWHILE, A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES REACHING A MAXIMUM OVER COASTAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, MEAN RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD.
PREDICTED RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTS ENHANCED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE APPALACHIANS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE
AXIS. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE BERING SEA.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RESTRICTED TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NOTABLE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE MAJOR MID-LEVEL
ANOMALY CENTERS GENERALLY PRODUCE A COLD SIGNAL WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE,
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE REMOVED FROM THIS
REGION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW THE PREFERRED CATEGORY FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE. CONVERSELY, A WARMING TREND IS PREDICTED FOR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES EAST. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WITH REDUCED PROBABILITIES
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE ROCKIES.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 70 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROUGH FORECAST OVER
CALIFORNIA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT.
CONVERSELY, PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR
ALASKA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE BERING SEA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR WED FEB 11 2026 - TUE FEB 17 2026
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING WEEK-2 ACROSS
THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, A PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER GREENLAND AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 180 METERS ARE FORECAST OVER HUDSON STRAIT.
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AS WELL AS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, RESULTING IN PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALEUTIANS. PREDICTED BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN CONUS AS TROUGHING
DEEPENS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS BUT WITH ONLY MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG OR HOW LONG THIS RIDGE WILL LAST, AS THE PREDICTED
PERSISTENT BLOCKING RIDGE OVER GREENLAND DOES NOT SUPPORT LARGE SCALE RIDGING
ACROSS THE EAST. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WEST OF HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWEST, AS ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DUE TO PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTH TEXAS, WHERE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED
PROLONGED CYCLONIC FLOW. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 60
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, CLOSE TO THE
PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND GREAT LAKES. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AS MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF IS PULLED NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL ANALOGS FROM THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
ITS WEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN AND CONFLICTING GUIDANCE AMONG TELECONNECTIONS
FROM THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY FEATURES.
FORECASTER: HANDEL
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19, 2026
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100216 - 20160210 - 19950205
20030125 - 20160120 - 20160210 - 19950205
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100215 - 20160211 - 20160120 - 20030125 - 19950205
6-10 DAY TABLE FOR MON FEB 09 2026 - FRI FEB 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS
NFDPMDMRD.
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