021
FOUS11 KWBC 040716
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 04 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 07 2026
..SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
DAY 1...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MAKE A SLOW MARCH
EASTWARD TODAY WITH RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. TRAILING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH WILL SLOW THE
FRONT A BIT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL JUST ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN
VA INTO NORTHERN NC FOR SNOW TO FALL AND ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION,
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NC TONIGHT COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
DRYING MAY LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT (0.01-0.05"), ANY FREEZING RAIN IS
IMPACTFUL TO UNTREATED SURFACES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST THURSDAY.
WPC PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE 20-50% OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VA AND BARELY 10% OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN NC.
..GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC
DAYS 1-3...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, AIDED BY A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON THURSDAY. LIGHT AND BROAD WAA-DRIVEN SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN AND ACROSS THE UPPER AND LOWER PENINSULAS OF
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET COMBINED WITH A POTENT
VORT MAX WILL SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD LIGHT SNOW. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT, SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MI AND WESTERN NY
TO OH, PA, AND WV STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO SPILL OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW IN
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD MAXIMIZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LOW (10-40%)
ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND WEST OF TRAVERSE CITY. OVER WESTERN
NY AND NW PA, SURFACE LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SPUR
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHERLY, PICKING UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE, WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE 20-50%. FINALLY,
OVER EASTERN WV, AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST IN THE REGION
AND WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE >70%,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000FT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, A BLAST OF BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE
DETAILS, PLEASE REFERENCE THE EXTREME COLD KEY MESSAGES IN THE
LINK PROVIDED BELOW.
FRACASSO
...EXTREME COLD KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT KEY
MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_1.PNG
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