373
FXUS02 KWBC 040756
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 7 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 11 2026
***RENEWED SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED FOR THE EAST COAST BY THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY SLOW MODERATING TREND***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION GOING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
EVOLVES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A TROUGH BUILDS BACK IN NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE IS INITIALLY DECENT OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY, AND THE CMC
HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS COMPARED TO ITS 12Z RUN, WHICH
HAD A STRONGER AND FASTER SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES GOING
INTO SUNDAY THAT LACKED ENSEMBLE AND AI MODEL SUPPORT. THE GUIDANCE
ALL AGREES THAT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN
AS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN, BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER IN THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE
GREAT LAKES, WHEREAS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION. THE
CMC IS ALSO AT ODDS WITH THE GFS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR THE
NORTHEAST U.S., WITH THE CMC FAVORING MORE OF A RIDGE AXIS AND THE
GFS SHOWING A TROUGH, AND THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAKER TROUGH. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY WEDNESDAY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, QPF WAS RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, AND WINDS WERE INCREASED BY ABOUT 10
PERCENT FOR THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AFTER A LONG DRY SPELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., PRECIPITATION
IS SET TO MAKE A RETURN TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STARTING SATURDAY
WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AS A COLD FRONT
FROM THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD GOING INTO SUNDAY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE NORTHWEST AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND LIKELY SETTLING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THIS EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT HEAVY IN TERMS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL, AND THEREFORE NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AREAS ARE CURRENTLY NEEDED IN THE EROS AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD THINGS TREND HEAVIER IN FUTURE MODEL CYCLES, A MARGINAL RISK
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN OREGON FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DICHOTOMY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WITH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. COLDER THAN
AVERAGE, AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES.
THE COLDEST ANOMALIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. MULTIPLE DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND, AND A
FEW RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE SET, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 0S
AND LOW 10S NEAR THE COAST, AND SUBZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS A MODERATING
TREND WILL COMMENCE STARTING MONDAY, AND READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS.
THE OPPOSITE WILL HOLD TRUE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AS ANOMALOUS WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE. THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO BE FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN MANY CASES,
EQUATING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THESE AREAS. A
MODEST COOLING TREND IS LIKELY GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST REGION.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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