681
FXCA20 KWBC 041826
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 PM EST WED FEB 04 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 04 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1830 UTC:
A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ACCOMPANIED WITH AN UPPER JET
STREAK MAX IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL SUPPORT A POTENT COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST REGIONS OF MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO NUEVO LEON AND COAHUILA. EXPECT
MOISTURE POOLING TO BE PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH 31MM. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL VERACRUZ. A
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM IS LIKELY IN THIS REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS,
CENTRAL CUBA, AND THE SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
THE EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL VERACRUZ AS WELL. ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND TABASCO,
THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
POOLING DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SPEED
DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM
ACROSS AREAS THAT WILL SEE OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
BY FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. ON FRIDAY
EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
AND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND
INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS. THE DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS. A MODERATE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE POOLING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. EXPECT THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OCCUR IN
THE MORNING ON FRIDAY, WHERE A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 -
20MM IS LIKELY.
MEANWHILE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BEHIND ITS AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE NORTHWARD DUE
TO THE DECREASING PRESSURE LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED POTENT MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING INTO COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
IT WILL SUPPORT A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOSING ITS DEFINITION DURING THE NIGHT. A MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS JAMAICA AND CUBA. THUS,
THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA FOR WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF, EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND AN INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
CUBA, JAMAICA, AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THURSDAY. THIS WIND DIRECTION
WILL FAVOR THE ENHANCEMENT IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS
REGION AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SPEED
DIVERGENCE TO BE PRESENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL LOSE
ITS DEFINITION THEREAFTER. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FAVORING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR FRIDAY, WHERE A TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT.
IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF THE WINDS WITH THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY AND
LOCAL EFFECTS. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL YIELD A TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM FOR THURSDAY ACROSS COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA AND A MAXIMA OF 35 - 70MM ACROSS NORTHWEST PANAMA ON
FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE PANAMANIAN LOW WILL BE
DRIVING PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ACROSS PANAMA AND COLOMBIA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN PARTICULAR, ON THURSDAY, THE INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE CHOCO REGION AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LOW PANAMANIAN LOW WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THIS REGION. THUS, THE PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CHOCO REGION,
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA, AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA WILL BE ON THURSDAY. NOTE
THAT THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
INTO THE PACIFIC COASTS OF ECUADOR AND PERU, LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL.
MEANWHILE IN THE CENTRAL AMAZON BASIN, AN UPPER JET STREAK MAX
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH,
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT AS WELL. THERE
WILL ALSO BE DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT IN THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA REACHING 45MM. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SEASONAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION
AND SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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