118
FXUS02 KWBC 050738
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 08 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 12 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION GOING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
EVOLVES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A TROUGH BUILDS BACK IN NEAR
THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AGREES WELL ON MOST ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, WITH A DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND
WORKING WELL AS A STARTING POINT IN THE FORECAST PROCESS. LOOKING
AHEAD TO TUESDAY, THE ECMWF BECOMES SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, WHEREAS THE OTHER GUIDANCE
IS FASTER. THE GFS BECOMES STRONGER WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE OTHER GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A WEAKER SYSTEM. THIS DIFFERENCE BECOMES EVEN MORE APPARENT
BY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF
BY THIS TIME. IN TERMS OF THE NBM, IT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR MOST
AREAS, EXCEPT QPF WAS SLIGHTLY RAISED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT RAINFALL, AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
BOTH DURING THE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AFTER A LONG DRY SPELL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S., PRECIPITATION
IS SET TO MAKE A RETURN TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON STARTING SATURDAY
WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AS A COLD FRONT
FROM THE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD GOING INTO SUNDAY TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE NORTHWEST AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND LIKELY SETTLING SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL RANGES OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN OREGON WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT, A MARGINAL
RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE NEW DAY 4/SUNDAY OUTLOOK FOR THIS
REGION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AS
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DICHOTOMY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WITH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. COLDER THAN
AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES ON MOST DAYS. THE COLDEST
ANOMALIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. A FEW
RECORD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE SET, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 0S AND
LOW 10S NEAR THE COAST, AND SUBZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS A MODERATING TREND WILL
COMMENCE STARTING MONDAY, AND READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS.
THE OPPOSITE WILL HOLD TRUE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AS ANOMALOUS WARMTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CONTINUE. THE
HIGHEST ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO BE FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN MANY CASES,
EQUATING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THESE AREAS. A
COOLING TREND IS LIKELY GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST REGION AND THEN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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