068
FXUS02 KWBC 051928
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 08 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 12 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SUNDAY, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RIDGING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WEST, WHILE
UPPER TROUGHING AND A COLD SURFACE HIGH CAUSE ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DAYS OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, WITH THE RIDGE BRINGING
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL U.S., AND
TEMPERATURE MODERATION EVEN INTO THE EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS
TROUGHING BUILDS IN. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. EARLY WEEK, AND THEN PRECIPITATION COULD FOCUS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND VICINITY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, NORTHERN STREAM WESTERN RIDGE, AND SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW. THE LATTER FEATURE STARTS TO SHOW SOME TIMING
SPREAD BY TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND AIFS WERE ON THE SLOWER SIDE,
BUT THE NEWER 12Z RUNS HAVE SPED UP A BIT AND ALIGN BETTER WITH
OTHER GUIDANCE. MODELS AGREE THAT THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY
INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE FLOW BEHIND IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TROUGHING COULD SUPPRESS
THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AND AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE GETS
ABSORBED INTO MIDWEEK. GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN IS TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OR WEST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE 00/06Z MODEL CYCLE SEEMED
PRETTY AGREEABLE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WOULD DIG NEAR THE WEST COAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY
OUTLIER WAS THE AIFS, AS THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS TOOK THE DEEP ENERGY
WELL WEST/OFFSHORE OF THE GFS/EC/CMC AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS.
HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS CAME IN WITH THE
UPPER LOW WEST/FARTHER OFFSHORE MORE LIKE THE AIFS. THUS WITH A
GROWING CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST
ALLOWING FOR RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, EXPECT FORECAST CHANGES
MAY NEED TO OCCUR IN THIS DIRECTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
RECENT ANOMALOUSLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST INTO SUNDAY.
COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. BY SUNDAY THE AR WILL BE MOVING REASONABLY
QUICKLY, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING
POTENTIAL WELL BELOW THE 5 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A MARGINAL RISK.
SOME PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH BY MIDWEEK THE AMOUNT AND
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MODEL
SPREAD.
FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED AND A
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, THIS SHOULD FOCUS
PRECIPITATION IN THAT VICINITY BY AROUND TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE EAST MIDWEEK. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, WITH THE DETAILS YET TO BE
DETERMINED.
A TEMPERATURE DICHOTOMY WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND THE ROCKIES TO
PLAINS MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE. EASTERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE BELOW AVERAGE BY 15 TO 25 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A FEW RECORD
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE SET, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 0S AND LOW
10S NEAR THE COAST, AND SUBZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND IN THE
EAST. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE TRAVERSING FROM THE
INTERIOR WEST TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL PRODUCE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PLAINS WILL SEE THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, LOCALLY
EVEN HIGHER. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE 60S WELL NORTH INTO MONTANA
AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTHEAST CAN EXPECT 70S AND A FEW 80S FOR
HIGHS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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