788
FXCA20 KWBC 051931
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EST THU FEB 05 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1935 UTC:
A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS,
NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA, AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
EVENING. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE LATE EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY. THUS, A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN THIS REGION. STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT,
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS, WHICH WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LEAD TO A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE
MOST INTENSE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL FAVOR
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CUBA. NOTE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THIS REGION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE
PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THUS, EXPECT
SPEED DIVERGENCE TO BE PRESENT OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO HISPANIOLA IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MOIST AIR
ADVECTION. THE COUPLING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL YIELD A TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM IN
THIS REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST AND
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS STRUCTURE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
MODERATE SIDE FOR SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WILL
ALSO AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA REGION STARTING ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
THAT WILL IMPACT PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
NOTE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE EXCEEDING 50MM
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY SATURDAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS, EXPECT A DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA REACHING 75MM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA
RICA AND NORTHWEST PANAMA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, A
MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH
THE DAY.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF DARIEN
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. ITS STRUCTURE WILL BE THE MOST WELL
DEFINED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO THE CHOCO AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF
COLOMBIA. AT THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THIS REGION ON THURSDAY AND IT WILL PROMOTE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THUS, THE MOST INTENSE TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY. A BROAD MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL GAIN DEFINITION FOR SATURDAY, LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA, THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION IMPACT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW THAT IS ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. ON THURSDAY,
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONVERGE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA, LEADING TO TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA OF 40 - 80MM. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST
OF ECUADOR, TRANSPORTING MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE PROPAGATING ACROSS THIS REGION,
HELPING ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN REGIONS OF ECUADOR ON SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHER PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN
HIGH WILL BE INFLUENCING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS ACROSS THE
AMAZON BASIN. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MAXES TRAVERSING THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHICH WILL SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AMAZON BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREFORE, THESE
REGIONS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST DAILY TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF
THE REGION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS, ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND A DYNAMIC MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN, SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
EXPECT THE DAILY DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
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