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FXUS06 KWBC 052025
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 05 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2026
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MODEL MEANS DEPICT A 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY'S, WITH AN ANOMALOUS MEAN RIDGE CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE
DAVIS STRAIT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS). MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, A MEAN RIDGE IS
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, AND SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREVAIL
FARTHER NORTH FROM SIBERIA AND ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THIS MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN, WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE IN THESE
FORECASTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS, MASKS A MORE VARIABLE PATTERN, WHERE MID-LEVEL
FEATURES ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND MOST 500-HPA HEIGHT FEATURES WAX AND WANE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST TRAVERSES THE
CONUS, REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, TEMPORARILY LOWERING
HEIGHTS THERE. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH, 500-HPA
HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY RISE IN THE WESTERN CONUS BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
EJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN ALASKA. THIS FEATURE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD,
FORCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DOWN AGAIN THERE. THE NORTH PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHICH LIFTS
HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA, FORCING SOME OF THE ENERGY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN
CANADA AND THE CONUS. ANOTHER AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO OR JUST NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA. THE EUROPEAN CENTRE
ENSEMBLE (ECENS) MEAN HOLDS ON TO SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA
LONGER THAN THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CNENS) AND GEFS MEANS, AND THE MANUAL BLEND
IS A COMPROMISE LEANING TOWARD THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH RAISES 500-HPA
HEIGHTS IN ALASKA RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
THE PREDICTED PATTERN WOULD CUT OFF THE PROTRACTED FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM DUE TO
THE EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD PULL MILD AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
PACIFIC AND THE GULF INTO THE REGION. THUS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MOST AREAS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, THE APPALACHIANS, AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXCEEDS 70 PERCENT IN A SWATH COVERING THE
PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE WAS LESS CONSISTENT ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC,
WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST VARIABLE. THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FROM
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE PACIFIC COAST, AND ALSO ACROSS THE LOWER NEW
ENGLAND AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THE REFORECASTS FAVOR NEAR- OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE REGIONS. TODAY'S FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF
THESE TOOLS, WHICH HAS LESSER ODDS FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH IN AFOREMENTIONED PARTS
OF THE EAST, AND ENHANCED CHANCES OF SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MOST NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND.
IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THERE IS AGAIN INCONSISTENCY AMONG THE RAW AND
STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS. IN THE ECENS, CNENS, AND
GEFS, THE REFORECAST AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE OUTPUT FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHILE THE RAW NUMBERS LEAN TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THE REFORECAST AND BIAS-CORRECTED NUMBERS ARE FAVORED, SEEMING MORE CONSISTENT
WITH PREDICTED LOW-LEVEL FLOW, SO ODDS MARGINALLY LEAN TOWARD WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ACROSS HAWAII, WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
WITH 500-HPA SHORTWAVES EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BOTH EARLY AND LATE IN
THE PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED THERE, WITH THE CHANCES
EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN OREGON,
AND CALIFORNIA. THIS IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST TOOLS AND ANALOGS.
THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AND PREDICTED SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO START REPLENISHING THE SNOWPACK, WHICH IS DEFICIENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEST
SO FAR THIS WINTER. MEANWHILE, THE FIRST MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY IN THE
WESTERN CONUS SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AS IT ERODES WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD INDUCE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WOULD MOVE EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, LEADING TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE CONUS, EXCEPT IN THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
LOWER FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK, FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE ECENS, CNENS, AND GEFS ALL
DEPICT A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
ADJACENT AREAS, WHERE CHANCES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT. THE
MID-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE,
PARTICULARLY IN A SWATH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE, WHERE ODDS FOR
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION EXCEED 40 PERCENT. FARTHER SOUTH, MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN, TEMPERED BY UNCERTAINTY
IN DAY-TO-DAY EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES, ALONG WITH AREAS OF
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE RAW AND STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2026
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING WEEK-2.
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE DAVIS STRAIT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. ELSEWHERE, GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE VARIABLE AND
PROGRESSIVE 500-HPA PATTERN, EVEN THOUGH THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD IS VERY SIMILAR TO WEEK-2 OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. LOOKING AT THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF FEATURES, A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS, TEMPORARILY BRINGING DOWN 500-HPA
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THE THREAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OR NEAR THE
WESTERN CONUS, MAINTAINING A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THERE. AS THE INITIAL 500-HPA SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES AND EXITS THE EASTERN CONUS,
THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE IMPINGING ON THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO HELP BUILD HEIGHTS
DOWNSTREAM, LEADING TO RENEWED MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EAST. ACROSS
ALASKA, THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, SLOWLY PUSHING 500-HPA HEIGHTS TOWARD OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF WEEK-2. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS SLOWER TO INCREASE ALASKAN
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THAN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. A COMPROMISE
FAVORING THE MORE RAPID INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS FORECAST, BUT IN ANY
CASE, THE DIFFERENCE DOESN'T CHANGE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST MUCH. AN
INITIALLY-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO LET UP, REDUCING THE
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY LATER IN WEEK-2. ACROSS HAWAII,
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS DECLINE A LITTLE AS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWESTWARD, BUT THE REGIME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WARMER AND WETTER THAN
NORMAL.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST
COAST. THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAVE A
BETTER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND A 60 TO 70
PERCENT LIKELIHOOD COVERS A BROAD SWATH THROUGH MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO VALLEY, AND DEEP SOUTH. THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES SHOW LESSER ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER NORTHEAST, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST NEAR THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM ALASKA. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ROCKIES TO THE PACIFIC COAST, EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT IN
MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON, CALIFORNIA, AND THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. BELOW-NORMAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT ALASKA UNDER COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. TO THE
SOUTH, WEST OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE AND SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HAWAII.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A POTENT 500-HPA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY NEAR THE OUTSET OF WEEK-2 BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ENCROACHES ON THE REGION, QUICKLY INCREASING THE ODDS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. TODAY'S GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS YESTERDAY'S WITH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE SIGNAL THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
CONUS REMAINS CONVINCINGLY STRONG. THE LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEST COAST STATES. FARTHER EAST, AFTER A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CLEARS THE REGION EARLY,, CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE WEST AND REBOUNDING 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE EAST INCREASES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TENNESSEE AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS OR ADJACENT AREAS WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS BOTH EARLY AND LATE IN WEEK-2. TO WIT, ODDS FOR INCREASED
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ACROSS THE CONUS, ONLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AREAS NEAR
THE GULF COAST ARE EXCLUDED FROM INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, AND THERE ARE MARGINALLY-INCREASED LIKELIHOODS OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF BOTH TEXAS AND FLORIDA. FOR ALASKA,
THE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND SHOULD BE EASING, RESULTING IN A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE IN A
SWATH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, WHERE THERE IS A
MARGINALLY-INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL PATTERN,
THE CONSOLIDATION, AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 22% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 13% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11, 37% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 28% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN TEMPERED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
DETAILS OF PATTERN EVOLUTION, REGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE RAW AND
STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, AND
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF A VARIABLE, PROGRESSIVE REGIME.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160208 - 20030125 - 19950130 - 20050122 - 19950204
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100216 - 20160211 - 20030126 - 19950205 - 20050120
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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