406
FXUS02 KWBC 060711
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 09 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 13 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ON MONDAY, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RIDGING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE WEST. TO THE
NORTH, A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. WITH UPPER TROUGHING EXITING THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY,
AND ONE MORE DAY OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, WITH THE
RIDGE BRINGING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL U.S.,
AND TEMPERATURE MODERATION INTO THE EAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AFTER A PROLONGED DRY SPELL, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGHING
BUILDS IN. RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. EARLY
WEEK, AND THEN PRECIPITATION COULD FOCUS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
VICINITY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW/DEEP TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST SOMETIME LATE WEEK, BRINGING RENEWED
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S..
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY, BUT SOME TIMING
VARIABILITY CONTINUES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND WEAKENS, BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. ON THE
LARGE SCALE, THIS IS NOT A BIG DEAL, BUT THIS DOES IMPACT SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS LIKE QPF TIMING AND COVERAGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES,
BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SEEMS TO WORK AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.
BIGGER QUESTIONS ARISE BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS DEEPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND WITH RECENT
MODEL RUNS (INCLUDING THE NEW 00Z GUIDANCE TONIGHT) FOR MORE ENERGY
TO BE PULLED WESTWARD AND AN OVERALL SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION
INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK. THE 12Z/YESTERDAY CMC WAS A CLEAR
OUTLIER WITH A MUCH FASTER AND STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S., AND WHILE THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT DID TREND SLOWER, IT'S STILL A
BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS. PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF/EC-AIFS
WITH THIS FEATURE, AS THAT GUIDANCE WAS CLOSEST TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THE LATTER PERIOD WPC FORECAST TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HELP SMOOTH OUT THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY WILL HELP
SPREAD INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
IN THE WEEK. ENERGY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST
ACROSS TEXAS EARLY WEEK. AS ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED
AND A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, THIS SHOULD FOCUS
PRECIPITATION IN THAT VICINITY BY AROUND TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE EAST MIDWEEK. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH
DETAILS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. THE NEXT
SYSTEM NEARING THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BEGIN TO
SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY THE
CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION, ONE MORE DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
MODERATION BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE
TRAVERSING FROM THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
WILL PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PLAINS WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY, LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE 60S WELL
NORTH INTO MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SOME AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, BUT STILL
GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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