161
FXCA20 KWBC 061857
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EST FRI FEB 06 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE EXITING INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING HAITI
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BY FRIDAY EVENING, IT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. ON SATURDAY EVENING, THE FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO LOSE
ITS DEFINITION STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS REMNANTS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SUBTROPICS STARTING SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE ACROSS INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND WEST-CENTRAL
CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO CUBA. THEREAFTER, THE
COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT.
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION, ON FRIDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER HISPANIOLA, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH
ITS ARRIVAL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST HAITI AND
MASSIF DE LA HOTTE DURING THE MORNING AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE
BY THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, THE PRESENCE OF MOIST AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING ON FRIDAY WILL HELP INDUCE SHOWERS. ALSO NOTE THAT
THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL REINFORCE PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO MORE COASTAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH PUERTO RICO ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL WIND
DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION IN THE LATE
EVENING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THERE WILL ALSO BE LOW LEVEL WIND CONFLUENCE
PRESENT IN THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY IN THIS REGION. ON SUNDAY EVENING, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION.
ANOTHER REGION THAT WILL BE INDIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE
DIURNAL CYCLE WILL FURTHER SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH
44MM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING. THUS, THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION
MAXIMA WILL BE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL DECREASE DAILY THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE
ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA, A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FUNNEL NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
COLOMBIA. THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION STARTING SATURDAY IN THE ENTIRE REGION.
THERE WILL STILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE ENTIRE REGION, LEADING TO HIGH TOTAL
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE WESTWARD. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET
(CLLJ) WILL REACTIVATE AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE IN THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE DECREASE
IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING
MOVES WEST.
ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, EXPECT ENHANCED
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
50MM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STARTING FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN ECUADOR, PROVIDING VERTICAL ASCENT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE.
EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER, THE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SATURDAY
NIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AMAZON BASIN. ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SOUTH OF THE GUIANAS. A SIMILAR
LOW-TO-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE GUIANAS ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE ENTIRE BASIN WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION FOR SUNDAY.
ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO, A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ARRIVING INTO THE CONTINENT ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER JET STREAK MAX
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL PROMOTE UPPER DIVERGENCE.
MEANWHILE AT THE MID-LEVELS, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERALL, THERE
WILL BE MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO INCREASING
TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
COUNTRY, EXPECT SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
TINOCO-MORALES...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page