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FXUS06 KWBC 062018
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 06 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AND ARE MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN EACH OF THE RECENT MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE A TROUGH PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND AMPLIFIES NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT MORE RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN A MANUAL BLEND OF THE THREE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN
CONUS IN EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, WHILE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
COAST PROGRESSES INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A CHANGING PATTERN LEADS TO A
FORECAST FAVORING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER PERSISTENT NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST
UNDER AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR REMAINING AREAS OF THE EAST, UNDER A PREDICTED
TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. PROBABILITIES
ARE ENHANCED TO GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
AHEAD OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE STRONGLY ENHANCED FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO MOST OF NEVADA AND ARIZONA, EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH
ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST, ALONG A POTENTIAL STORM TRACK
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER A VARIABLE PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF GEFS AND ECMWF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER TIME. ALL MODELS
PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, IN 8-14 DAY MEAN FORECASTS, WITH EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN AND RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN WEEK 2, AND PROGRESS OVER THE
EAST COAST BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES MOVE
EASTWARD LATER IN WEEK 2.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, UNDER
AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND
OVER THE WEST FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN AND ARIZONA, UNDER THE
PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MODERATE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER A VARIABLE PATTERN AND NEAR ZERO AVERAGE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
UNDER A VARIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR OF MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION, WHILE NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE
PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN WEEK 2, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS, AS TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY A VARIABLE
PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160208 - 20150212 - 20050122 - 19950204 - 19950130
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160209 - 20050120 - 20100217 - 20150213 - 20030126
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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