994
FXUS02 KWBC 062030
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 09 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 13 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ON MONDAY, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND RIDGING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS, AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST PROVIDING ONE MORE DAY OF
CHILLY TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD, WITH THE RIDGE BRINGING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO THE CENTRAL U.S., AND TEMPERATURE MODERATION INTO THE EAST AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A DRY JANUARY. MEANWHILE, RAIN
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY-TUESDAY, SPREADING
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE EAST TUESDAY-MIDWEEK. THEN
ADDITIONAL TROUGHING MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST AND BRING RENEWED
MOISTURE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY AND AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SCALE
FLOW, BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TO USE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE
DESPITE DETAIL ISSUES WITH SENSIBLE WEATHER. THERE IS ALSO SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND GREAT LAKES, BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
SEEMS TO WORK AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.
BIGGER QUESTIONS ARISE BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS DEEPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST. RECENT TRENDS HAD BEEN FOR A SLOWER
UPPER LOW TO SPLIT INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM WELL WEST OF THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS/EC/AIFS WITH THE CMC FARTHER EAST. BUT THE
NEW 12Z GUIDANCE KIND OF BUCKED THAT TREND AND SHOWS A TREND
FARTHER EAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE 12Z ECMWF THAT SHOWS
MORE PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE ENERGY REACHING
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS/AIFS/AI-GFS/CMC
ARE BETTER ALIGNED WITH AN EASTWARD POSITION COMPARED TO THE 00Z
GUIDANCE, BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE EC. IN ANY CASE, HAD BLENDED
IN SOME ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ABOUT HALF BY LATE PERIOD BUT ADDITIONAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MONDAY WILL HELP
SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD REACH CALIFORNIA BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE COASTAL RAIN AND
SIERRA NEVADA SNOW. PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR WEST MAY START
TAPERING OFF MIDWEEK, BUT WESTERN TROUGHING COULD SPREAD SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY THE CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THERE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS TEXAS EARLY WEEK. AS ITS
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED AND A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, THIS SHOULD FOCUS PRECIPITATION IN THAT VICINITY
BY AROUND TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY REACHING THE EAST MIDWEEK. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH DETAILS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION, ONE MORE DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BEFORE
MODERATION BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE
TRAVERSING FROM THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
WILL PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PLAINS WILL SEE
THE GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY, LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE 60S WELL
NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SOME AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES, BUT STILL GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO EXPAND ACROSS
THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
TATE/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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