784
FXUS02 KWBC 071954
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 10 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 14 2026
..OVERVIEW
AN INITIAL UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
TUESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS
SHUNTED OFF TO TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO
DIVE DOWN THE WEST COAST WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR RENEWED MOISTURE AND EXPANSION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN STATES NEXT
WEEKEND. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BRING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT WITH
THE INITIAL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD,
WEAKENS, AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. THERE
REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DETAILS WHICH WILL IMPACT
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, BUT WE HAVE
SEEN BETTER AGREEMENT EVOLVE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. IT IS NOW
CLEAR THAT THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL REMAIN
SEPARATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMER
SOLUTION AND LESS OF A THREAT OF WINTER IMPACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.
THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE WEST
COAST TROUGHING BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND HOW/WHEN THAT ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. TODAY'S MODEL TREND WAS FOR THE
GFS/ECMWF TO TREND CLOSER TO THE AI MODEL SUITE (EC
AIFS/AIGFS/AIGEFS) WITH A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS WEST COAST
TROUGH. THIS DELAYS THE STRONGER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE WE CAN NOT SAY
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS TREND WILL PERSIST, WE WILL NOTE THAT
MOST OF THE AI MODEL SUITE HAS BEEN IN THIS CAMP FOR SEVERAL RUNS.
THIS SEEMINGLY ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE 12Z GFS/EC/CMC
TREND THAN AN ABRUPT SHIFT LIKE THIS NORMALLY WOULD. THUS TEND TO
THINK WE WILL SEE THE OVERALL ENSEMBLE DATA/NBM EVOLVE IN THIS
DIRECTION. WHILE CONFIDENCE MAY BE INCREASING IN THIS SLOWER
SOLUTION, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
DETAILS OF HOW THE TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES AND THE LATITUDE IT TRACKS.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE RELATED TO THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST.
THE 12Z EC/CMC KEEP A SIGNAL FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS, BUT THE
GFS AND AI GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE TREND FOR MORE
SEPARATION BETWEEN STREAMS, WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR LESS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH A SMALL CORRIDOR OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO CA WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, SPREADING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS TRENDED STRONGER TODAY, AND
THUS RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL HAS
INCREASED. WHILE THE AI GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THIS FOR A FEW MODEL
CYCLES NOW, THE PHYSICAL MODELS ARE JUST NOW TRENDING IN THAT
DIRECTION. WHILE STILL NOT EXPECTING MAJOR RAIN OR SNOW TOTALS,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF 1-2" OF RAIN ACROSS THE
COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CA. WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY MARGINAL
RISK YET, BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THEN CAN NOT RULE OUT A
LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
IT SEEMS LIKE THIS FEATURE HAS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF BEING OUR
NEXT LARGE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE HAVE SEEN
SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE REGARDING THIS EVOLUTION, ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS OF HOW THE
TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES AND THE LATITUDE IT TRACKS. THESE DIFFERENCES
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM. SO WHILE HEAVY RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WINTRY PRECIP TO
THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALL PROBABLE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE
MUCH INSIGHT REGARDING THOSE DETAILS.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. LOTS OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH THESE DETAILS THOUGH, AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO BOTH THE TIMING ANS
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COMING DAYS.
NOT SEEING MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST.
CHENARD/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page