197
FXUS02 KWBC 081958
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 11 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 15 2026
..OVERVIEW
TROUGHING DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WEDNESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY SEND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY, TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION HELPING TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EAST WITH UNCERTAIN WINTRY IMPACTS POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTH SIDE. A SECOND TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY AND DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE WEST
COAST TROUGHING BY MID TO LATE WEEK AND HOW/WHEN THAT ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE AND HOW MUCH NORTHERN
STREAM INTERACTION THERE IS. THE 06Z GFS/GEFS SEEMED TO BE
OUTLIERS WITH A QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION, HOWEVER THEIR
12Z RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
STORM MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY THIS COMING WEEKEND, HOWEVER
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THE JUMP BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF TO UNDERSTAND THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL EXISTS. THE 00Z
DEPICTED A SLOWER SUPPRESSED SYSTEM, WITH THE 12Z A BIT
QUICKER/STRONGER AND MORE PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
GENERALLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE 500MB FORECAST RESULTED IN A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE LOW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS. THE 00Z EC ENSEMBLE PLOTS INDICATED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
SPREAD FOR THE LEAD TIME CENTERED AROUND THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE
LOW MOVING INTO CA AND NORTHERN MX EARLY FRI, WHICH IS THE FEATURE
THAT THEN TRACKS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE AIFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS STORM, ALTHOUGH EVEN IT HAS SHOWN
SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS WILL OCCUR, WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF SEEMINGLY
REPRESENTING THE SLOW/SOUTH AND FAST/NORTH BOOKENDS OF PLAUSIBLE
OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME IS LIKELY IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO MORE EXTREME SOLUTIONS, WITH THE 12Z AIFS
CURRENTLY IN A PRETTY GOOD MIDDLE GROUND WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR MULTI
CYCLE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS. WILL JUST NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS, AS ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ARE LIKELY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND MODEST SNOWS IN THE SIERRA. RECENT
RUNS OF THE AIFS HAS SHOWN A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SENSITIVE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN A PRETTY RELIABLE MODEL FOR SYSTEMS MOVING
INTO CA THIS WINTER, AND IT WOULD INDICATE A LOW END FLOOD RISK AS
THIS RAIN MOVES ACROSS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MARGINAL RISK GIVE
CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD ON THESE DETAILS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BLOSSOM
AND QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
EAST. DETAILS REGARDING HOW THE TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND THESE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BY THIS WEEKEND. AT LEAST SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL COULD
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AXIS REMAINS UNCLEAR.
WITH THE SYSTEM INITIALLY DISPLACED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH, SO WINTRY IMPACTS CURRENTLY
APPEAR LIMITED INITIALLY. BY THE TIME THE LOW GETS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SOME MARGINALLY COLDER AIR COULD ALLOW FOR
WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, ALTHOUGH
THESE DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. OVERALL NOT A TON OF COLD
AIR TO WORK, SO THINGS WOULD NEED TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT TO
GET SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY
THOUGH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR
PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE SIERRA.
CHENARD/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page