379
FXUS06 KWBC 082002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN FEBRUARY 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 18 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AND ARE MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN EACH OF THE RECENT MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS. FURTHER NORTH, A TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO THE WEST OF THE BERING SEA
AT THE START THE PERIOD, WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA ARE PREDICTED TO AMPLIFY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AND HIGH PLAINS IN A MANUAL BLEND OF THE THREE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. RIDGING AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE
EASTERN CONUS IN EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PREDICTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN, UNDER AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, EASTERN GREAT BASIN, AND
FOUR CORNERS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ADJACENT
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND COAST, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSOLIDATION OF GEFS AND ECMWF
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED TO GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AHEAD OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. AHEAD OF
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND EXCEEDS 70 PERCENT FROM CALIFORNIA TO
WESTERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA. A SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY FURTHER CYCLONIC ACTIVITY FURTHER
NORTH, LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND NEW ENGLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER TIME. ALL MODELS
PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, THE ALEUTIANS, AND PART OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY MEAN FORECASTS. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS OVER THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MOST OF WEEK 2, BEFORE A TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, UNDER AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND OVER THE WEST FROM PACIFIC
COASTAL STATES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE GREAT BASIN, AND MOST OF ARIZONA,
UNDER THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
UNDER A VARIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CONSOLIDATION, WHILE NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA,THE
ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF
THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN WEEK 2, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
GULF COAST STATES, AND THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, AS TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC
FLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR TEXAS AND THE
GULF COAST, UNDER PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY A VARIABLE
PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050120 - 20150212 - 20160210 - 19950204 - 20030126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050120 - 20150213 - 20160211 - 20030126 - 19910211
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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