646
FXUS02 KWBC 090744
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 12 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 16 2026
..OVERVIEW
TROUGHING DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL SEND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND FRIDAY WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY, TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION HELPING TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EAST WITH UNCERTAIN WINTRY IMPACTS POSSIBLE
ON THE NORTH SIDE. A SECOND TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL AMPLIFY AND DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE IN BETWEEN.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE AND HOW MUCH NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION THERE IS. ON THE
LARGE SCALE, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION AND
THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS AND EXACT SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH THE NEW 00Z RUN, THE GFS
REMAINS A BIT WEAKER, FASTER, AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FEATURE
AND SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
SEEMS TO BE SOME GENERAL CONSENSUS TOWARDS SOMETHING A BIT
STRONGER, LESS PHASED, AND A FARTHER NORTH SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE
CMC AND EC-AIFS ARE SLOWER, WITH THE ECMWF A BIT TO THE NORTH. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE A NICE MIDDLE GROUND TO THE STILL VARIABLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
AFTER THIS, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST. FOR DAY 6-7, THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TIMING OF THIS, BUT THE GFS WAS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. PREFER A BLEND MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO HELP TEMPER SOME OF THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AS THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
BLOSSOM AND QUICKLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY-
SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EAST BY SUNDAY. DETAILS REGARDING
HOW THE TROUGH/LOW EVOLVES ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AND THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BY THIS WEEKEND, MOST
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.
WINTRY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN STILL. THE GFS IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
GIVE ANY KIND OF WINTRY WEATHER, BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND CMC DO SHOW
SNOW, POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL, ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SO CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WINTRY IMPACTS IS VERY LOW,
BUT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR
PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE SIERRA.
NOTHING HAZARDOUS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
STATES SHOULD BE NEAR OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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