307
FXUS01 KWBC 090746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 AM EST MON FEB 09 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 09 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 11 2026
...LINGERING LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY, PRECIPITATION FOCUS
SHIFTS TO CALIFORNIA TUESDAY...
...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TO START THE WEEK...
...WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN U.S., CONDITIONS MODERATE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. AS
WELL....
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM. A POST-FRONTAL WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
WITH ALL SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONAL TOTALS FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY, WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THEN, ON
TUESDAY, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING
MODERATE LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL RAIN TO MOST OF THE STATE, WITH
HEAVY SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN AND TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING WILL BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE MODERATE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AS
WELL AS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY,
WITH A FOCUS ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AS WELL AS FAR WEST
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN U.S. THE FOCUS MONDAY REMAINS ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHERE HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S ARE UPWARDS OF 35-40 DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY FEBRUARY AVERAGES. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING
HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A RELATIVE COOL
DOWN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE, REACHING INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY BRINGING A SIMILAR RELATIVE COOL
DOWN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE COMBINATION
OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY HAS PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MONDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REST OF THE WEST
COAST AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE WITH
THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN/FRONTAL PASSAGES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR THE INTERIOR AND 50S AND 60S FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE, A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK FOR THE
EASTERN U.S. FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER, AND A
PARTICULARLY BRUTAL WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY, WHILE NEW ENGLAND AT LEAST WARMS CLOSE
TO AVERAGE. FORECAST HIGHS BY TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE 20S AND 30S
FOR NEW ENGLAND, 30S AND 40S FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, 40S AND 50S FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND 60S AND
70S IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST.
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