897
FXUS02 KWBC 091933
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VALID 12Z THU FEB 12 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 16 2026
..OVERVIEW
A TROUGH SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEND ENERGY INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODEST PRECIPITATION, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS ENERGY
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER USHERING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR UNCERTAIN WINTRY IMPACTS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. A SECONDARY TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND HAD GOOD CLUSTERING AMONG THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND MEANS. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY/STRENGTH AND TIMING AND TO WHAT DEGREE DOES
THE NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
OF LATE, THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT WEAKER, FASTER, AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE FEATURE AND SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND. IT ALSO HAS BEEN NOTABLY DRIER WITH QPF. THE CMC AND
EC- AIFS ARE SLOWER, WITH THE ECMWF A BIT TO THE NORTH. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE A NICE MIDDLE GROUND TO THE STILL VARIABLE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
BEING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE
WEST COAST WITH RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE CONUS. WPC USED A MULTI-
MODEL APPROACH LEANING TO ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO HELP
TEMPER SOME OF THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
STATES BY SATURDAY AND REACHING THE EAST BY SUNDAY. CONSENSUS IS
GROWING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BRING BENEFICIAL MOISTURE TO A VAST
PORTION OF THE SOUTH AND PARTS OF THE EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINT FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW ON WINTRY IMPACTS IS VERY
LOW, BUT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE THUS BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE SIERRA.
NOTHING HAZARDOUS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
STATES SHOULD BE NEAR OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
CAMPBELL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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