878
FXUS02 KWBC 100751
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 13 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 17 2026
..OVERVIEW
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODEST PRECIPITATION, AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL BE MORE ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THIS ENERGY TRACKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER USHERING PRECIPITATION INTO THE EAST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UNCERTAIN WINTRY IMPACTS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS SYSTEM. A SECONDARY TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST MID TO LATE PERIOD WITH RENEWED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE INLAND. IN BETWEEN,
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE AND
AMPLIFIED UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, BUT STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SMALLER SCALE BUT IMPORTANT DETAILS. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL AREA OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN TO WHAT
DEGREE THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WORKED WELL FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT DIFFERENCES BECOME
MORE APPARENT BY SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE LESS PHASED AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH MORE PHASED. THE EC-AIFS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A PRETTY GOOD MIDDLE GROUND RIGHT NOW AND THE
WPC FORECAST WAS BLENDED TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE LATER
PERIOD.
BEHIND THIS, THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO BEING MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE WEST COAST
WITH RIDGING PRESENT OVER THE CONUS. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, BUT LOTS OF QUESTIONS WITH VARIOUS PIECES
OF ENERGY WHICH MOVE INTO THE WEST. HARD TO PICK OUT ANY
PARTICULAR OUTLIERS, BUT THE GFS WAS A BIT FASTER TO BRING THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS INLAND.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN U.S.,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD QUICKLY
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING THE
EAST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE THIS RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL, MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, SO MARGINAL RISKS WERE ADDED TO THE DAY 4/FRIDAY AND DAY
5/SATURDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY LIFTS UP AND OFF THE EAST COAST,
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE LOW FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
WITH A GENERAL LACK OF APPRECIABLE COLD AIR, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
VERY LOW ON THE SPECIFICS OR POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE THUS BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA FROM FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTICULARLY THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO THE SIERRA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TIME AS WELL.
NOTHING HAZARDOUS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
STATES SHOULD BE NEAR OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, THOUGH THE
WEST MAY TREND COOLER AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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