460
FXCA20 KWBC 101822
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
122 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1825 UTC:
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE FORECAST REGION WILL SEE THE IMPACT OF
DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS DOMINATE THE REGIONS OF MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE
WEST CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION, THE PRESENCE OF LOW MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONS REMAINING SEASONABLY DRY FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LOCALIZED REGIONS IN THE
NORTH AND EAST CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN AS THE
REGION WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.
ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS TO THE WEST, CENTERED JUST WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER TROUGH, AS VARIOUS WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES, ONE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES, AND ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM ENTERING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FAVORING A SHEAR LINE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LEVELS OF MOISTURE
ARE DECREASING AS THE SYSTEMS WEAKEN, HOWEVER, THE SHEAR LINE WILL
FAVOR INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL LOWER ANTILLES, FAVORING
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON TUESDAY. IN THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS, EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SIMILAR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER
HISPANIOLA WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT. ON
WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST
CARIBBEAN WILL FAVOR LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SHEAR LINE WEAKEN AND
DISAPPEAR OVER THE REGION. AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEMS, EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ISLANDS TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES,
WHILE GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 10-25MM ARE EXPECTED FROM HISPANIOLA
TO THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES, AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES THE
GREATER ANTILLES BY THURSDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING THE LARGER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION, A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. FURTHERMORE, THE PRESENCE OF THIS
FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL FAVOR A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO HISPANIOLA BY THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ENHANCING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION, THE NORTHEASTERLY
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PREFRONTAL TROUGHS PROPAGATING OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. THE BAHAMAS, TURKS AND CAICOS, AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
CAN EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 10MM OF PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY SINCE THESE REGIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA, THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REGIONS OF INTEREST ARE THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS OF SOUTH NICARAGUA THROUGH PANAMA WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) FAVORING THE ADVECTION OF MOIST
PLUMES INTO THE COASTAL REGION AND INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN.
ON TUESDAY, A MOIST PLUME THAT ENTERED OVER COSTA RICA WITH
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 50MM IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE THE IMPACT
OF THE LLJ WILL PROVIDE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON TUESDAY
FROM EAST COSTA RICA THROUGH BOCAS DEL TORO REGION IN PANAMA, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHEAST
PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY, A NOTABLE
DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN TOTAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
EASTERN COSTA RICA. THE BOCAS DEL TORO REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM, WHILE A DECREASE IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST PANAMA INTO THE
DARIEN REGION, WITH MAXIMA REACHING 15MM. EAST NICARAGUA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM AS WINDS BEGIN TO TURN EASTERLY. ON
THURSDAY, THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
FAVOR A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL ALSO FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ENTERING THE REGIONS OF EAST COSTA
RICA AND THE BOCAS DEL TORO REGION IN PANAMA. EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM FOR THE REGION. LOCAL MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE REACHING THE REGION THROUGH THE TRADES.
IN PORTIONS OF MEXICO, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS TRAVELING IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN CENTRAL
AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY, WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS THIS TROUGH PASSES THE NORTHWEST REGION OF
MEXICO, PRIMARILY AFFECTING CHIHUAHUA, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND SOUTH GUERRERO CAN EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH SOME MOISTURE ENTERING THE COASTAL REGIONS DUE
TO LOW LEVEL TROUGHING. BY THURSDAY, A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE NORTHWEST REGION OF MEXICO, WHERE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH,
REMNANT OF A COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 10MM IN NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FAVORING SUBSIDENCE IN THE
REGION.
IN TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, MOST OF THE LARGER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE REMAIN TO THE SOUTH, AND ALONG THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST REGION. ON TUESDAY, THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MEANDERS TO THE SOUTH, MEANING THAT THE
AREAS OF HIGHER DIFFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AMAZON REGION. IN
AMAPA-BRASIL, THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM,
AND THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE REGION. IN WEST
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, THE PANAMA LLJ WILL FAVOR CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE REGION, ENHANCING MOIST
ONSHORE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRIES. EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TWO DAYS. ON
THURSDAY, A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE GUIANAS AND THE AMAZON
DELTA WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 20-35MM IN
THE REGION, WHILE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN COASTS OF
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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