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FXUS06 KWBC 102013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2026
TODAY'S MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN IS FORECAST, FEATURING A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS,
BERING SEA, AND MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA; A DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA, THE 0Z ECENS AND 0Z CMCE SOLUTIONS DEPICT
MEAN RIDGING, WHILE THE 6Z GEFS PREDICTS THE INCURSION OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). APART FROM THIS REGIONAL DIFFERENCE, THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS AND THE BIG PICTURE OVERALL. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE, WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED NEAR 25N/175W.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR
WEST, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF TOOLS. THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE EXPANSIVE
AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH INCLUDES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GIVEN THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS, IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE GREATER COVERAGE OF ANOMALOUS COLD FORECAST BY THE
RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED SOLUTIONS IS TOO WIDESPREAD. THE INCREASED ODDS FOR
COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM ODDS FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS
70 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE ALASKA PENINSULA REPRESENTS
THE NEAR-NORMAL TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO
THE NORTH AND EAST, AND THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ALEUTIANS
(RELATED TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES). OVER THE LOWER 48
STATES, FROM THE EASTERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS
WARMTH LIES AHEAD (EAST) OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS, WITH THE REMAINING AREA
(CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS) RELATED TO A FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN. THE GREATEST ODDS EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW, ACCOMPANIED BY LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, INCREASES THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST 50 PERCENT
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES, UNDER STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY. ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED TO SURPASS 50
PERCENT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION. OVER THE
ALASKA DOMAIN, A WANING ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN STILL FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS. OFFSHORE
FLOW FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA,
THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE ERF-CON AND AUTOMATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2026
THE PREDICTED WEEK-2 MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN SHOWS VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN, AND WITH YESTERDAY'S OFFICIAL WEEK-2
CIRCULATION FORECAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND MUCH OF ALASKA DURING TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WHILE FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, AN
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN IS A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF A
STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA (PNA) PATTERN.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE FAR WEST,
WITH A WEAK EASTWARD EXTENSION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FAVORS A BROAD, WEAKER
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO A BROAD
PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT THE LOW-LEVEL RADIATION
INVERSIONS THAT COMMONLY AFFECT THIS REGION DURING THE WINTER. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WYOMING
EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MAXIMUM 70-80
PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONUS. REDUCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHEAST, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ERF-CON TOOL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
AMOUNTS FOR PRACTICALLY ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WARRANTED BY
THE RAW, REFORECAST AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES (50-60 PERCENT) OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN FROM MAINE TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. THIS IS RELATED TO ONE OR
MORE COLORADO LOWS THAT ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING WEEK-2. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADEQUATE MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GULF. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST
COAST STATES, FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS. IN ALASKA, WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY DURING WEEK-2, THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW ALOFT AND EAST-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
FAVOR NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE.
FOR HAWAII, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050121 - 20150127 - 19960212 - 20160121 - 20030126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050121 - 20160211 - 20150126 - 20150213 - 20030126
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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