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FXUS06 KWBC 112002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2026
TODAY'S MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN IS FORECAST, FEATURING A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA,
AND MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA; A DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA, AND A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
AND THE BIG PICTURE OVERALL. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE, WITH FORECASTED
HEIGHT DEPARTURES NEAR ZERO. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH THE ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER PREDICTED NEAR 20-25N/175W.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR
WEST, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF TOOLS. THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES FAVOR A MORE EXPANSIVE
AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH INCLUDES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GIVEN THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS, IT IS THOUGHT THAT THE GREATER COVERAGE OF ANOMALOUS COLD FORECAST BY THE
RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED SOLUTIONS IS TOO WIDESPREAD. THE INCREASED PROBABILITIES
FOR COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS, AND SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS 80 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ONLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS
(ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES). OVER THE
LOWER 48 STATES, FROM THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION, WYOMING, AND SOUTHEAST
MONTANA EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 80 PERCENT FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS TO THE EASTERN CORN BELT AREA.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH LIES
AHEAD (EAST) OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS, WITH THE REMAINING AREA (CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS) RELATED TO A FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-AVERAGE
500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. THE GREATEST CHANCES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA, AND SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, ACCOMPANIED
BY LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCREASES THE ODDS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES, UNDER MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN, A WANING ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
ALASKA'S WEST COAST. NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW FAVORS A TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS CLOSER TO THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE
CENTER. THE ERF-CON AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 25 2026
THE PREDICTED WEEK-2 MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN SHOWS VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY FORECAST PATTERN, AND WITH YESTERDAY'S OFFICIAL WEEK-2
CIRCULATION FORECAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND MUCH OF ALASKA DURING TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXCEEDING 270 METERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A -150 METER HEIGHT
DEPARTURE INDICATED ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN IS A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA (PNA) PATTERN.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST, WITH A WEAK EASTWARD EXTENSION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FAVORS A BROAD, WEAKER
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERN RANGING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO A BROAD
PATTERN OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT THE LOW-LEVEL RADIATION
INVERSIONS THAT COMMONLY AFFECT THIS REGION DURING THE WINTER. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WYOMING
EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH A MAXIMUM 70-80
PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
REDUCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHEAST, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ERF-CON TOOL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WARRANTED BY THE
RAW, REFORECAST AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PRIMARY ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS (MEAN STORM TRACK AND POLAR JET
STREAM) SHIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF WEEK-2, THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH
TIME. ACCORDINGLY, A 50-60 PERCENT AREA FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WHEN THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES (60-70 PERCENT) FOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS WERE IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA, AND ARIZONA. EAST OF THE DIVIDE,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST
OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM MAINE TO THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT REGION. THIS IS RELATED TO ONE OR MORE COLORADO LOWS THAT ARE FORECAST
TO TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING WEEK-2. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED
TO STEER ADEQUATE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GULF.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA, MUCH OF NEW MEXICO, AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS, AS WELL AS OVER FLORIDA AND
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST; FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
IN ALASKA, AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE BERING
SEA, THE WESTERLY EXPANSION OF NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA FLOW AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE, INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. FOR HAWAII,
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, BASED ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210131 - 20090205 - 19920203 - 20130125 - 20060126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050121 - 20150126 - 20050126 - 19960212 - 19920202
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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