458
FXUS02 KWBC 112010
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 14 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 18 2026
...WEEKEND SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST/SOUTHEAST U.S. HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH SOME NORTHERN PERIPHERY WINTRY COMPONENT TO MONITOR...
..EARLY NEXT WEEK MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST
..OVERVIEW
IT MAINLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE QUITE
ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE EAST COAST.
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS NOW MORE OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE,
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH RENEWED AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEST AS WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE INLAND. THIS EVENTUALLY MAY
SPIN UP A DEEP SURFACE LOW IN/AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER. IN BETWEEN, UPPER RIDGING BUILDS THE
CENTRAL TO MIDWEST TO FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGER SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION AGREEMENT
IN AN ACTIVE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, BUT STILL WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE IMPORTANT DETAILS AS ENERGETIC FEATURES WORK
THROUGH SPLIT STREAM FLOWS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE WPC FAVORED
GUIDANCE BLEND WAS BASED MORE HEAVILY ON DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE BLENDING IN SOME ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THE MAJOR SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN WITH A SOUTHERN TIER
SHORTWAVE, ESPECIALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE
LOWS LIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
THESE ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO HOW MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY ANY PHASING
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. HOWEVER, LATEST 12
UTC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FINALLY, BOLSTERING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO A DEGREE AS IT FITS WELL WITH OUR BLEND.
AFTER THIS, TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST WITH A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF
ENERGY MOVING INLAND. CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST AROUND TUESDAY WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE LIKELY
TO SPIN UP A DEEPENING CYCLONE IN/AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN U.S.,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD QUICKLY
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY, REACHING THE EAST
BY SUNDAY. THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WHILE THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL, MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS SUCH, A
BROAD MARGINAL RISK, WITH AN EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISK, CONTINUES ON THE
DAY 4/SATURDAY ERO CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE EAST ON SUNDAY, MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SO A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
ALSO STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THREAT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS MORE OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST WITH LESS
STREAM PHASING. THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS, AND ALSO CONSIDERING A LACK OF OVERALL COLD AIR DAMMING.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE THUS BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH TIME AS WELL TO INCLUDE SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED SNOWS AND RAIN/SNOW MIX EVEN DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS OF SOME
AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS LIKELY FALLS IN THE FORM OF SNOW BUT
IMPACTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
NOTHING HAZARDOUS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES FOR THE CENTRAL U.S.,
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD TREND COOLER UNDERNEATH UPPER
TROUGHING, BUT WARMER IN THE EAST AS THE CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE
PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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