039
FXCA20 KWBC 121848
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
148 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 FEBRUARY 2026 AT 1850 UTC:
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST MEXICO
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND WEST UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TO THE SOUTH A
POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF MEXICO,
PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS AND FAVORING TRADE WIND INVERSIONS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENED AS IT INTERACTED WITH
THE TERRAIN OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER INTO THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, FAVORING MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WITH ITS BASE OVER SONORA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BY THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY FOR THE
DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL, WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS OF SONORA. WITH THE COLDER AIR THAT IS COMING FROM THE
NORTH, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN SONORA WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FAVORING
THE REORGANIZATION OF A COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, THAT WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY THE
EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE DECREASES OVER THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTH CHIHUAHUA AND COAHUILA ON SATURDAY, WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW
LEVEL JETS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES OVER THE REGION.
OVER THE BAHAMAS, TURKS AND CAICOS, AND THE CARIBBEAN REGIONS, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY
EVENING, FAVORING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AS
THIS FRONT IS REACHING THE REGION, EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PREFRONTAL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES BY THURSDAY EVENING. THESE REGIONS
WILL HAVE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THEY MEANDER OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO/VI, FAVORING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM OVER THE
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND HAITI, EXPECT
TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, WHERE TRACE TO LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE REGIONS OF TROUGHING CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, WHERE HISPANIOLA COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION DUE TO ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, WITH MAXIMA
RANGING FROM 20-35MM. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO/VI COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY,
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN TURKS AND CAICOS AND
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM OVER THE REGION.
CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION OF 20-35MM IN HISPANIOLA, WHILE PUERTO RICO/VI COULD
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGHS REORGANIZE AND MEANDER
OVER THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORING
SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WHERE TRACE TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION, WHERE
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE COUNTRIES, WHERE SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
BE CONTINUOUS, INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN FOR OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT AND PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN COSTA RICA
AND NORTHWEST PANAMA. THIS CONTINUOUS CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM IN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWEST PANAMA, WHILE MAXIMA OF
15-20MM ARE EXPECTED IN EAST PANAMA INTO THE DARIEN REGION. ON
SATURDAY, A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
CARIBBEAN LLJ WEAKENS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, FAVORING MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. BY SATURDAY, A DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION, WITH MAXIMA RANGING
BETWEEN 20-45MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA, THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE AMAZON RIVER BASIN AS DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE
GUIANAS AND THE AMAZON DELTA AND THE PANAMA LLJ WEAKENS OVER THE
GULF OF PANAMA ON THURSDAY. MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
COLOMBIA WITH WEAK MOISTURE ENTERING THE WESTERN COAST, HOWEVER,
AND MAXIMA CAN RANGE FROM 20-45MM ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, MOIST
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING AND ENHANCED EASTERLY TRADES WITH THE PRESENCE
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) ADVECTING MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
WESTERN AMAZON BASIN WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION,
AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, AS DEEP CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON
BASIN, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AS WELL AS A
REORGANIZED PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH REACHING THE REGION BY
THE EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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