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FXUS06 KWBC 122002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 12 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN
AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS
BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS
RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES AN
AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN, FEATURING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL
PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA; A DEEP
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND A STRONG ANOMALOUS
RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND THE BIG PICTURE
OVERALL. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF
THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE, WITH FORECASTED HEIGHT DEPARTURES NEAR
ZERO. IN ADDITION, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FROM THE EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND WYOMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FROM EASTERN
TEXAS TO PARTS OF ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS WARMTH LIES AHEAD (EAST)
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS, WITH THE REMAINING AREA (CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS)
RELATED TO A FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCLUDES MOST OF
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS, AND SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS 80 PERCENT FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ONLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS
(ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES). FOR HAWAII,
ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. THE GREATEST CHANCES EXCEED 60 PERCENT OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE REGION AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, ACCOMPANIED BY LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCREASES THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST 50 PERCENT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES, UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. OVER THE ALASKA DOMAIN, A WANING ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW FAVORS A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE
DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS CLOSER TO THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER. THE AUTOMATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA DURING
TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 300 METERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS HEIGHT
ANOMALY PATTERN IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF A STRONG NEGATIVE PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA
(PNA) PATTERN. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII
UNDERNEATH TROUGHING.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST, WITH A WEAK EASTWARD EXTENSION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WYOMING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, WITH A MAXIMUM 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS, LOUISIANA, AND MISSISSIPPI.NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHEAST, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NEARLY
ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ERF-CON TOOL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WARRANTED BY THE
RAW, REFORECAST AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. A 50-60 PERCENT AREA
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN
FROM MAINE TO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION. THIS IS RELATED TO ONE OR MORE
COLORADO LOWS THAT ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING WEEK-2. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADEQUATE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GULF. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, MUCH OF NEW MEXICO, AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS, AS
WELL AS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, AS THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE BERING SEA, THE WESTERLY EXPANSION OF NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA FLOW
AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
FOR HAWAII, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090205 - 20060126 - 20210131 - 20130220 - 20240205
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090204 - 20210201 - 19920203 - 20240202 - 20130125
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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