386
FXUS02 KWBC 122003
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2026 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2026
...WEEKEND EAST/SOUTHEAST U.S. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH SOME
UNCERTAIN NORTHERN PERIPHERY WINTRY COMPONENT TO MONITOR...
..EARLY NEXT WEEK MODERATE-HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST
..OVERVIEW
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP FOR PARTS OF OUR NATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND UP INTO MID-
ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THE LESS CERTAIN NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, INCLUDING POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW
GENESIS AND TRACKS TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST WITH
RENEWED AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEST
AS WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE INLAND. THIS EVENTUALLY SPINS UP SURFACE
LOWS OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. THESE IS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND WITH A HARD TO
TIME, BUT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS. IN BETWEEN, UPPER RIDGING FAVORS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S., ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHTS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
EVOLUTION IN THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, BUT WITH LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF A COUPLE OF STRONGER SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COUNTRY. THE WPC BLEND FOR TODAY FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS EARLY ON, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WEIGHTING
TOWARDS THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH MID-LATER PERIOD.
THESE PIECES OF GUIDANCE LEANED TOWARD DIGGING ENERGY MORE ROBUSTLY
OFFSHORE THAN A PURE CONCENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS
SEEMS TO MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AMPLITUDE IN
MOST GUIDANCE AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH IN NOT MORE SO WITH TRENDS
FROM THE LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE CYCLE.
THE MAIN LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL OFFERS UNCERTAINTY, PARTICULARLY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS WERE RECENTLY TRENDING
TOWARDS PULLING THIS LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST RATHER QUICKLY,
LIMITING THE OVERALL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE NORTH SIDE.
HOWEVER GIVEN RENEWED VARIANCE IN SOME OF LATEST 12 UTC GUIDANCE,
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK DETAILS OF LOWS ARE STILL A BIT IN QUESTION.
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING AND AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
TO START NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH ENERGY PUSHING
INLAND AROUND TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
VARY ON DEPTH AND TIMING OF THIS TO IMPACTS WINTRY WEATHER ON THE
NORTH SIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW/ENERGY WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST TO RELOAD THE OVERALL TROUGH AND KEEP THE WEST ACTIVE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND WHILE THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL, MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS SUCH, A BROAD MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES ON
THE DAY 4/SUNDAY ERO FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN MORE SUPPRESSED TO OFFSHORE, BUT SIGNALS TO
REVERSE THAT TREND A BIT HAVE EMERGED IN SOME NEW 12 UTC GUIDANCE.
THE NEXT TROUGH OFF THE WEST WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUX OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE THUS BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH HEAVY
SNOW IN THE SIERRA. THE DAY 5/MONDAY ERO DOES DEPICT A MARGINAL
RISK FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE MOISTURE ANOMALIES AND
INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST WITH MAXIMUM IVT POTENTIAL INTO TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WELL TO INCLUDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWS
AND RAIN/SNOW MIX EVEN DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS OF SOME AREAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. THIS LIKELY FALLS IN THE FORM OF SNOW. IMPACT EXTENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE FLOW PATTERN SEEMS GENERALLY FAVORABLE.
NOTHING HAZARDOUS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 15-20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INITIALLY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATER NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL INCLUDE SOME RECORD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN
PARTICULAR. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD TREND COOLER
UNDERNEATH UPPER TROUGHING, BUT WARMER IN THE EAST AS THE CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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