121
FXUS02 KWBC 130745
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 16 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026
***RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAKES WELCOMED RETURN TO THE WESTERN
U.S., AND WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING IT, AND THIS RIDGE SLOWLY REACHES THE EAST
COAST BY THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AFTER
PROLONGED COLD WEATHER. OUT WEST, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING
PLACE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BUILDING INTO THE REGION, BRINGING BADLY NEEDED MOISTURE AFTER THE
RECENT DRY SPELL, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN, EXCEPT THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXITING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA MONDAY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, THE GFS IS STRONGER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, AND THIS BECOMES EVEN MORE APPARENT BY THURSDAY WITH THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COMPARED TO THE NON-NCEP CONSENSUS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY NEXT FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW FROM WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN WYOMING FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK, SO BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED TO
BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SET-UP WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, SOME LIGHT QPF WAS ADDED MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERDONE IN THE NBM. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A TREND FOR HEAVIER QPF
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO TO THE GREATER LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO METRO AREAS. A
MARGINAL RISK WILL BE VALID FOR THESE AREAS ON MONDAY, AND A MORE
CONFINED MARGINAL RISK FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A
SLIGHT RISK COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY FOR THE UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGE IF MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS HIGHER. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUITE A BIT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT MOVING INLAND, AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL GOING INTO TUESDAY. MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE FOR THE HIGHER RANGES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MOISTURE WILL GREATLY
HELP WITH THE DETERIORATING DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COLORADO RIVER BASIN.
THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THIS LOW SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THEN REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL GENERATE ENHANCED WINDS FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO WYOMING, AND
COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
MICHIGAN, WITH SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE MARCH AND APRIL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW-MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO GET A
WELCOMED WARM-UP AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS THE
WARMTH FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN
CHECK ON MOST DAYS.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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