888
FXUS02 KWBC 131958
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 16 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 20 2026
...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW PATTERN RETURNS TO THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM
HEAVY SNOW/ICE THREAT FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S/MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A DEEPENED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MODERATE
COASTAL LOW GENESIS DOWNSTREAM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS RIDGE SLOWLY REACHES THE EAST
COAST BY THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
OUT WEST, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES TO WORK ROBUBSTY INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING NEEDED MOISTURE AFTER THE RECENT DRY SPELL, WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND HEAVY
TERRAIN ENHANCING SNOWS FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER QUITE A BIT NEXT WEEK GIVEN
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH/HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING. DOWNSTREAM, POTENT
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WEST INTO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL CROSS THE PLAINS TO TAKE AIM ON DEEPER LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD
AIR HELD OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH- CENTRAL U.S, MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THEN SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK TO
OFFER A THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW AND IMPACTFUL TRANSITIONAL ICE ZONE.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. WHILE THERE REMAINS LINGERING FLOW
EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES TO NAVIGATE, PREDICTABILITY IS
BETTER THAN NORMAL WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION AND IMPACTFUL
THREAT EXPECTATIONS, IF NOT LOCAL SPECIFICS GOING OUT WITH TIME.
A BROAD BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE OF THE MODELS,
ENSEMBLES AND MACHINE LEARNING SYSTEMS SEEMS TO OFFER A SOLID
FORECAST BASE GENERALLY IN LINE OVERALL WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM), WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY AND MAIN THREAT MESSAGING. THE
MAIN MANUALLY APPLIED ADJUSTMENT DESIGNED TO IMPROVE NBM GUIDANCE
WAS TO INCREASE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WINDS
TO BE IN LINE WITH AMPLE CONCERNS FOR EMERGING FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO TO THE GREATER LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO METRO AREAS. A
MARGINAL RISK WILL BE VALID FOR THESE AREAS ON MONDAY, AND A MORE
CONFINED MARGINAL RISK FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD BE AND AS ADDITIONAL AND ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL WORK THROUGH WITH LESS CERTAIN TIMING.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SLIGHT RISK COULD EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ON MONDAY FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TRANSVERSE RANGE IF
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS HIGHER. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
QUITE A BIT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND, AND
THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL GOING INTO TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, AND 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE FOR THE HIGHER
RANGES OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS MOISTURE WILL GREATLY HELP WITH THE DETERIORATING DROUGHT
SITUATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN.
THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THIS LOW SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THEN REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS OFFERS AN EMERGING SIGNAL IN SUPPORT OF A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND TRANSITIONAL ICE/FREEZING RAIN ZONE THREAT.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL GENERATE ENHANCED
WINDS FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO WYOMING, AND COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS
WARMTH AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BROAD CORRIDOR OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MICHIGAN, WITH SNOW ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE MARCH AND APRIL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE ROCKIES. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOW-MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO GET A
WELCOMED WARM-UP AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS THE
WARMTH FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT THE
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN
CHECK ON MOST DAYS.
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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