410
FXUS02 KWBC 140751
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 17 2026 - 12Z SAT FEB 21 2026
...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW PATTERN RETURNS TO THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM
HEAVY SNOW/ICE THREAT FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S/MIDWEST NEXT WEEK...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST GOING INTO TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING IT, AND THIS RIDGE
THEN REACHES THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFTER PROLONGED COLD WEATHER. OUT WEST, A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUILDING INTO THE REGION, BRINGING BADLY NEEDED
MOISTURE AFTER THE RECENT DRY SPELL, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM THE SIERRA
NEVADA TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN ORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH THE NORMAL LEVEL OF MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS,
EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER OFFSHORE SOLUTION WITH THE CMC REGARDING THE
EXITING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THE UKMET IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THIS LOW
WEAKENS BY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CMC IS SLOWER WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND MAKES IT
STRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHEREAS THE GFS/GEFS
ARE GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED
TO ABOUT HALF BY NEXT SATURDAY.
IN TERMS OF THE NBM, THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW FROM WESTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN WYOMING FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, SO BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED TO
BETTER REPRESENT THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SET-UP WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON WERE ALSO SLIGHTLY RAISED ALONG
WITH LOWERED DEWPOINTS GIVEN THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM NEAR SAN FRANCISCO TO THE GREATER LOS ANGELES
AND SAN DIEGO METRO AREAS. A MARGINAL RISK WILL REMAIN VALID FOR
THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY SOUTH OF MONTERREY, AND LIGHTER SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN NO RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HEAVY AT THIS TIME IN THE
FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUITE A BIT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND, WITH MULTIPLE FEET OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND 1 TO
2 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS PROBABLE FOR THE HIGHER RANGES OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SNOWFALL
WILL GREATLY HELP WITH THE DETERIORATING DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN.
THE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THIS LOW SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THEN REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN GOING
INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
GENERATE ENHANCED WINDS FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO WYOMING, AND COMBINED
WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
MICHIGAN, WITH SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS BY THURSDAY, BUT LIKELY LESS
IMPACTFUL THAN THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE MARCH AND APRIL ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST WITH THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE ROCKIES. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
RECORD HIGHS TO BE SET. EXCEPT FOR NEW ENGLAND, THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL ALSO GET A WELCOMED WARM-UP AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY
COLD WEATHER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AS THE WARMTH FROM THE PLAINS BUILDS EASTWARD WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT
NO ARCTIC AIR MASS INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLDER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST GIVEN
THE UPPER TROUGH AND MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING DAYTIME
HIGHS IN CHECK ON MOST DAYS.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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