788
FXUS01 KWBC 141908
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 15 2026 - 00Z TUE FEB 17 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...
..HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OFF
THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE MAINLY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE.
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS DECREASED TO A MARGINAL RISK
ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND EASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST
FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OFF AND ON FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN AND SNOW BECOME STEADIER OVER
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW STARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SIMILARLY, RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER ON
MONDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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