572
FXUS06 KWBC 142002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT FEBRUARY 14 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 24 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND
SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN, FEATURING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA; A DEEP ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND AN
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BUT HAS RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND THE BIG PICTURE OVERALL. THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARGIN OF THE STRONG EAST-CENTRAL
PACIFIC RIDGE, WITH FORECASTED HEIGHT DEPARTURES NEAR ZERO. IN ADDITION, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH IS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FROM THE
EASTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. PROBABILITIES
ARE MUCH LOWER TODAY, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
THE REGION FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS QUITE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ANOMALOUS
WARMTH LIES AHEAD (EAST) OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINING AREAS
(CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS) WHERE INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ARE RELATED TO A FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR COLDER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INCLUDES MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD ANOMALOUS
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS,
AND SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS 90 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ONLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS (ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES). FOR HAWAII, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. THE GREATEST CHANCES EXCEED 50 PERCENT OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION
AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED NORTH OF THE
REGION. WEAK RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ADDITIONAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE COULD BRING ONE OR MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS AS A FORCING MECHANISM. OVER ALASKA, NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW FAVORS A
TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS CLOSER TO THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE
CENTER. THE AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MUCH OF ALASKA DURING
TODAY'S 6-10 PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PACIFIC, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 300 METERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM, AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND AN EXTENSION OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM
AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEST, WITH A WEAK EASTWARD EXTENSION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND WYOMING EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, WITH A MAXIMUM 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHEAST, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MANY OF
THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE ERF-CON TOOL CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WARRANTED BY THE
RAW, REFORECAST, AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS. EAST OF THE DIVIDE,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THIS IS RELATED TO ONE OR MORE COLORADO LOWS THAT ARE FORECAST TO TRAVEL
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING WEEK-2. CLOCKWISE FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
STEER ADEQUATE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GULF.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, AS
THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE BERING SEA, THE
WESTERLY EXPANSION OF NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA FLOW AND EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE STATE. FOR HAWAII, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), BASED
ON VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090206 - 20060126 - 20210130 - 20130220 - 20090212
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090206 - 20210201 - 20060127 - 20210127 - 20070222
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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