967
FXUS01 KWBC 150645
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 17 2026
...SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FOR SUNDAY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...
...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY
MONDAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW TORNADO, CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS, PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVER AREAS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
BANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC,
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES BY TUESDAY.
IN THE WEST, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE MOISTURE MOVES OVER INTO THE CASCADES AND
SIERRA NEVADA, EXPECT CHANCES FOR SNOW TO INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE
SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1-4" THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE SURFACE, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD,
SPREADING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD,
BRINGING ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS. IN ADDITION, COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
CHANCES FOR DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY, EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CALIFORNIA MOUNTAIN RANGES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST, WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE NEAR-NORMAL. MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN U.S. START TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL START TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL U.S. MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STILL SEE 20-35 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OUDIT
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