052
FXUS02 KWBC 151925
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VALID 12Z WED FEB 18 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 22 2026
...WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW FOR THE WEST AND HEAVY SNOW/ICE POTENTIAL
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND WITH FOCUS MID-LATER WEEK...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
PREDICTABILITY IS ABOVE NORMAL THAT A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE FIRST LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WEAKENS GOING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND A
NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO/VICINITY AND EMERGES
OVER THE MIDWEST AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
OUT WEST, THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
RENEWED PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE, ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SHOULD ABATE AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
LIKELY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MAJOR CITIES OF THE NORTHEAST,
WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE WELL CLUSTERED AND GENERALLY ARE
IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIMES SCALES, WITH THE NORMAL LEVEL OF
MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES. A COMPOSITE BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE
OF THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH A
DASH OF MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SEEMS A GOOD FORECAST BASE IN
LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) AND WPC CONTINUITY.
THE NBM APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY AND
MANUALLY APPLIED ADJUSTMENTS WERE LIMITED, ALTHOUGH WINDS IN
PARTICULAR WERE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, PLAINS AND
INTO THE MIDWEST WITH ENERGETIC SYSTEM/JET PATTERN INTO FRIDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
OVERALL, IN GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST COURTESY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION, AND RAIN FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE SOME ABATEMENT IN THE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, SO NO RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR THE WPC DAY 4
AND DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY WITH A
MAIN AXIS FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY WITH A WINDY
FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. RAIN
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT
LOW, AND THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY INLAND SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY, AND RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. TRENDS WITH ALL THIS WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THE DAYS AHEAD ALONG WITH A RISK OF AN ICY
TRANSITION ZONE GIVEN MOISTURE SET TO OVERRUN COOLED HIGH PRESSURE.
A WIDE EXPANSE OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SOME READINGS 30 DEGREES ABOVE MID-LATE
FEBRUARY STANDARDS OVER THE MIDWEST EQUATING TO HIGHS IN THE 60S UP
TO THE GREATER CHICAGO AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY
RECORD HIGHS TO BE SET. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS,
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY SUPPRESSES THE WARMTH FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY, WITH AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINAS HAVING HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY RETURN TO GENERALLY
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH READINGS
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
PORTIONS OF THE WEST.
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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